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Research Report
Date: 02 June, Monday 2025
01 Key News Insights
SUMMARY: U.K. house prices rose more than expected in May, increasing by 3.5% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month, according to data from Nationwide. The monthly rise marked the largest gain since December.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Nationwide’s latest report highlighted a rebound in property prices after April’s dip, which followed a surge in transactions during March as buyers sought to benefit from the expiry of a temporary stamp duty break. May’s gains surpassed forecasts, with economists having anticipated only a 0.1% monthly and 2.9% annual rise.
EXPERT OPINION: “This suggests to us that the stamp duty impact on house prices was minimal and that a combination of rising wages and falling mortgage rates continues to underpin house prices,” said analysts at RBC Capital Markets, led by Anthony Codling.
MAJOR EVENTS: Nationwide’s chief economist Robert Gardner emphasized that favorable market fundamentals remain intact, citing low unemployment, rising real wages, and strong household finances. He added that borrowing costs could decline further if the Bank of England reduces rates.
02 - Major Data and Event
03 - DOLLAR INDEX
DXY: C&C’s previous research – reported a primary uptrend for DXY, after making a high of 114.78 (52-week high). Later, following a 52-week low of 99.10. DXY has made a double bottom pattern and taken a retest from its support and breakout in daily TF and trying to test its resistance made a high of 99.22 and a low of 98.70 on Friday and close at 99.00 and now hovering around 98.56. The upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
04 - VIX
VIX: VIX is trading at 20.99 while writing the report, it traded lower after making a high of 21.10 in the previous trading session and previous low 20.09 finally closed at 20.38. The upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the U.S. Dollar Index (VIX).
05 - FOREX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: UBS is advising investors to reassess their U.S. dollar holdings amid evolving global economic conditions, warning that the greenback’s long-standing strength may be waning as growth dynamics and capital flows shift.
NEWS IMPACT: UBS highlighted that the U.S. dollar’s sustained appreciation in recent years is showing signs of reversal. Investors with excess USD exposure are being urged to consider reallocating to home or alternative currencies to better align with long-term financial goals and mitigate potential currency risk.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: In its latest note, UBS pointed to factors such as changing policy expectations and weakening U.S. growth relative to global peers as reasons for potential dollar underperformance.
EXPERT OPINION: “As the tide turns—due to shifting growth differentials, changing policy expectations, and evolving global capital flows—investors are rethinking their currency exposure,” UBS analysts said. They suggested that the euro offers a balanced mix of flexibility and stability.
GBP USD
Technical Summary: The primary trend for GBPUSD is Sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing Bullish moments in its prices. A range bound consolidation pattern breakout can be identified on the GBP/USD 4-hour chart and it is trading above the middle band of BB indicator while taking support from the daily pivot level 1.3472, It is also trying to chase its next resistance level at 1.3561. Therefore, we are identifying Buy-on-dips opportunities for intraday trading.
Descriptive Analysis: GBP/USD is attempting to move upside on the daily time frame and remains above its key pivot level (1.3472). The pair is currently trading above support levels around 1.3450, making it vulnerable to potential upward momentum. As long as it stays above the middle Bollinger Band, the bullish movement remains more likely. From a fundamental perspective. The Upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the GBP/USD.
Data related Projection If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in lower than expected, signaling a slowdown in job creation and a softening outlook for the U.S. economy, the U.S. dollar could weaken, putting upward pressure on GBP/USD.
Indicator Interpretation: Currently, GBP/USD prices are moving towards the Upper Bollinger Band (BB) level on the H4 chart, and the BB indicator is expanding, signaling increased volatility. Additionally, the CCI indicator is moving towards the positive territory, indicating a potential upward move in the pair.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in higher than expected, signaling stronger job creation and a more robust outlook for the U.S. economy, the U.S. dollar could strengthen, putting downward pressure on GBP/USD.
Technical Confirmation: If GBP/USD continues to trade above the middle band of the BB Indicator, and the CCI starts moving towards positive territory, then the above-mentioned triggers will confirm buying pressure in the currency pair.
Facts & Figures: GBP/USD and USD/JPY are often negatively correlated due to the differing risk dynamics associated with the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. While the Australian dollar is typically viewed as a risk-sensitive currency, benefiting from positive market sentiment, the Japanese yen is often considered a safe-haven asset, strengthening during times of uncertainty.
Daily Pivot: 1.3472 (CMP is 1.3531 which is trading above the pivot levels while writing this report).
USD CHF
Technical Summary: The primary trend for USDCHF is Sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing a sideways moment in its prices. We can identify a clear rectangle pattern forming in USDCHF (H4); today it is trading below middle band of the BB indicator and also taking resistance from upper band of BB indicator. So, we are identifying sell-on-rise opportunities for intraday.
Descriptive Analysis: USDCHF is trying to move downward in the daily time frame, towards its support level at 0.8175 and it is trading below pivot levels (0.8225). This indicates that bearish movement is stronger. If we look at the fundamental side of it. The Upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the USD/CHF.
Data related Projection If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in lower than expected, it suggests slowing job growth and a weakening outlook for the U.S. economy, which could weigh on the dollar and lead to a bearish move in USD/CHF.
Indicator Interpretation: Currently, USD/CHF prices are moving downward and trading below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands (BB). The pair is attempting to move towards the middle band support, while the CCI indicator is also showing a sideways to negative reading. Therefore, we can expect a downward move in USD/CHF prices today.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points: If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in higher than expected, it suggests strong job growth and a more optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy, which could support the dollar and lead to a bullish move in USD/CHF.
Technical Confirmation: If USD/CHF continues to trade below the Middle band of the BB Indicator, and the CCI starts moving towards negative territory, then the above-mentioned triggers will confirm selling pressure in the currency pair.
Facts & figures: The USDCHF currency pair has always had a near-perfect negative correlation with the EURUSD pair. This means that the USDCHF will tend to rise when the EUR/USD falls, and vice versa.
Daily Pivot: 0.8225 (CMP is 0.8191 which is trading below pivot while writing this report.)
05 - COMEX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Monday, supported by safe-haven demand as U.S.-China trade tensions resurfaced. Weakness in the U.S. dollar, spurred by dovish Fed commentary, added to bullion’s gains.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Spot gold gained 0.8% to $3,315.68/oz, while August gold futures rose 0.7% to $3,338.52/oz by 00:53 ET (04:53 GMT). Renewed trade friction between Washington and Beijing, alongside expectations for lower interest rates, fueled investor demand for gold and other haven assets.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Sentiment turned risk-off after China rejected accusations from President Donald Trump that it had breached a recent trade deal. This followed stalled trade talks and growing friction over U.S. restrictions on China’s chip sector.
OPINIONS: “Gold is responding to geopolitical tension and policy expectations,” said a commodities strategist at a Tokyo-based bank. “If the U.S.-China standoff worsens or rate cut bets grow stronger, gold could challenge new highs in the coming weeks.”
GOLD
Technical Summary: The primary trend for XAUUSD is uptrend, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing Bullish moments in its prices. We can identify a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern forming in XAU/USD on the 4-hour chart (H4), and it is trading above the middle band of BB indicator while taking resistance from the daily pivot level 3294, It is also trying to chase its next resistance level at 3369. Therefore, we are identifying Buy on dips opportunities for intraday trading.
Descriptive Analysis: On the 4-hour (H4) chart, Gold is trading above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (BB) indicator, with the bands sloping downward, indicating bullish momentum. However, the RSI is currently at 64.66, indicating bullish momentum.
Data Related Projection: The upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the XAU/USD. If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in higher than expected, it suggests stronger job growth and a more positive outlook for the U.S. economy, which could strengthen the dollar and put downward pressure on XAU/USD.
Indicator Interpretation: The price is currently trading below the BB middle band. If it faces resistance here, we may see a corrective rally toward its lower band.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in lower than expected, it suggests weaker job growth and a softening outlook for the U.S. economy, which could weaken the dollar and provide upward pressure on XAU/USD.
Technical Confirmations: If price took resistance at middle band of BB and hold below the levels, we can see gold price may give a bearish rally and can also breaks the lower band.
Facts & figures: Gold is often viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty and market volatility.
Daily Pivot: 3294 (CMP is 3357 & prices are trading above the pivot level while writing the report)
06 - CRUDE OIL
SUMMARY: Oil prices rebounded sharply on Monday, rising over $1 per barrel after OPEC+ maintained its planned July output increase at 411,000 barrels per day, easing market fears of a larger supply boost. The decision helped Brent and WTI reverse last week’s losses.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Brent crude rose $1.46, or 2.33%, to $64.24 a barrel by 06:26 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $1.66, or 2.73%, to $62.45. The limited hike reassured traders who had braced for a more aggressive production increase, leading to a positive start to the week.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: OPEC+ announced on Saturday that it would raise output by 411,000 bpd in July—the same as in May and June. Markets had priced in the expected increase, but concerns lingered that a larger hike could flood the market.
OPINIONS: “Had they gone through with a surprise larger amount, then Monday’s price open would have been pretty ugly indeed,” said Harry Tchilinguirian of Onyx Capital Group. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia added, “The headline motive has centred on punishing OPEC+ members like Iraq and Kazakhstan that have persistently produced above their pledged quotas.”
CRUDE OIL
Technical Summary: The primary trend for Crude oil is sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing bullish moments in its prices. We can identify a Range Bound Consolidation pattern in WTI (H4), and it is trading above middle band of BB indicator and taking resistance from the daily pivot level 60.27, it is also trying to chase its resistance level of 62.19 So, we are identifying buy on dips opportunities for intraday.
Descriptive Analysis: In 4hr-TF Crude oil trading below middle band of the BB indicator, and the bands are also angle downward with the price, indicating some downside movement in the price. Although the RSI at 38.00 indicating neutral zone.
Data Related Projection: The upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on WTI/USD. If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in higher than expected, it suggests strengthening labor market conditions and improving momentum in the U.S. economy, which could strengthen the dollar and put downward pressure on WTI/USD.
Indicator Interpretation: If prices find support at the lower band of the Bollinger Bands indicator, we could see a retracement toward the middle band.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: –
Trigger Points: If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in lower than expected, it suggests weakening labor market conditions and a slowing U.S. economy, which could weigh on the dollar and put upward pressure on WTI/USD.
Technical Confirmations: Currently, the prices of WTIUSD trading below the Middle band of the BB indicator. If price breaks the middle band, we are expecting price may give a bullish rally.
Facts & Figures: Countries maintain strategic oil reserves to ensure energy security and stability during supply disruptions.
Daily Pivot: 60.27 (CMP is 61.77 & and prices are trading above the pivot levels while writing this report.)
07- GLOBAL INDICES OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: The Swiss economy grew by 0.8% in Q1 2025, outpacing expectations as exporters rushed shipments to the U.S. ahead of impending tariffs announced by President Donald Trump.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Government data showed a marked increase in exports, particularly to the U.S., driving GDP growth well above the 0.4% long-term average. The latest figure also surpassed the flash forecast of 0.7% and the previous quarter’s 0.6% growth.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) highlighted that U.S.-bound exports rose 17.4% in Q1 compared to Q4 2024, far exceeding the overall export growth of 3.6%. The surge was largely attributed to companies front-loading shipments before U.S. tariffs—initially set at 31% in April—came into force, later reduced to 10%.
EXPERT OPINION: “In particular, exports to the U.S. rose sharply, pointing to possible front-loading in connection with U.S. trade policy,” SECO stated. Analysts expect Q2 growth to moderate as the one-off boost from export acceleration fades, though underlying service sector strength remains intact.
US 30
Technical Summary: The US30 index is currently trading in a sideways consolidation, hovering around the middle Bollinger Band, with no clear directional bias. Price action has lost some bullish momentum, evidenced by lower highs and a recent failure to sustain above the 42,600-resistance level.
Descriptive Analysis- US30 is currently showing neutral to slightly bearish momentum on the H4 chart, consolidating below the middle Bollinger Band and hovering around the key pivot level of 42,147. The price is encountering resistance near 42,460, and recent candles show rejection at higher levels, suggesting weakening bullish strength. RSI is currently hovering around the 50 mark. Considering fundamental aspects. The Upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the US30.
Data-Related Projection: If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in higher than expected, it suggests a strengthening labor market, which can reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts or even raise the likelihood of future hikes. This may weigh on US30, as higher interest rates increase borrowing costs and can dampen market liquidity.
Indicator interpretation- Prices of US30 are hovering above the upper band of the BB and RSI showing reading above 50 which is supporting our bullish view.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in lower than expected, it suggests weakening labor market conditions, which can increase expectations for Fed rate cuts. This may support US30, as lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs and improve market liquidity.
Technical Confirmations: If US30 starts to move above the middle band of the BB Indicator and RSI starts showing positive figures, then US30 will also move towards upper levels.
Facts & figures: Market expectations, risk tolerance, and investor confidence are just a few factors that can have a substantial impact on the US30 index. Positive sentiment, driven by favorable news, optimistic outlooks, and a general belief in market growth, can drive the index higher. Conversely, negative sentiment, driven by concerns, uncertainty, or fear, can lead to a decline.
Daily Pivot: 42147 (CMP is 41983, and the prices are trading below the pivot level while writing the report)
08 - Disclaimer
- CFD trading involves substantial risk, and potential losses may exceed the initial investment.
- Signals and analysis are based on historical data, technical analysis, and market trends.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results; market conditions can change rapidly.
- Consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in CFD trading.
- Signals are for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
- Each trader is responsible for their decisions; trade at your own risk.
- The report does not consider individual financial situations or risk tolerances.
- Consult with financial professionals if uncertain about the risks involved.
- By accessing this report, you acknowledge and accept the terms of this disclaimer.
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