Research Report
01 Key News Insights
Date: 24th February, Tuesday 2026
MARKET HEADLINES
SUMMARY: Japan’s Q4 GDP grew annualized 0.2% (missed 1.6% est), quarterly 0.1% (vs 0.4%), testing Takaichi’s post-election government amid weak demand, high costs; may spur fiscal stimulus despite debt risks.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Consumption +0.1% (cooled from 0.4%), capex +0.2% (missed 0.8%), net external demand zero; revised Q3 contraction -2.6%; stocks/bonds subdued; Takaichi eyes early supplementary budget.
EXPERT OPINION: “Takaichi’s reflation via looser fiscal looks prescient; sluggish activity increases chances of suspending food tax, early H1 budget,” Capital Economics’ Thieliant says.
MAJOR EVENTS: Takaichi post-election stimulus push; BOJ Feb rate decision; spring wage negotiations March-April; Trump tariff impact assessment; Q1 GDP forecasts 1.04% annualized.
02 - Major Data and Event
03 - DOLLAR INDEX
DXY: C&C’s previous research – reported a primary downtrend for DXY, after making a high of 108.00 (52-week high). Later, following a 52-week low of 95.55. DXY has made a sideways pattern and taken a retest from its resistance and breakdown in daily TF and trying to test its support made a high of 97.15 and a low of 96.80 on and close at 96.88 and now hovering around 96.97. Friday’s Core PCE data at 19:00 is expected to significantly impact on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
04 - VIX
VIX: C&C’s previous research – reported a primary downtrend for VIX, after making a high of 42.50 (52-week high). Later, following a 52-week low of 12.50. VIX has made a sideways pattern and taken a retest from its resistance and breakdown in daily TF and trying to test its support made a high of 20.09 and a low of 18.74 on and close at 19.74 and now hovering around 19.98. Friday’s Core PCE data at 19:00 is expected to significantly impact on the U.S. Volatility Index (VIX).
05 - FOREX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: The yen weakened on Tuesday as markets weighed the fallout on global trade from renewed turbulence over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff regime.
NEWS IMPACT: The greenback clawed back losses as China and Japan reopened following holidays and Trump warned countries against retreating from recent trade deals after the Supreme Court struck down his emergency tariffs.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: The yen dipped after China announced export controls on Japanese companies in a further sign of souring relations. The Nikkei newspaper said U.S. authorities took the lead in conducting so-called rate checks last month to prop up Japan’s currency without a request from Tokyo.
EXPERT OPINION: “Now we’re back in a very uncertain environment,” Ray Attrill, head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank, said on a NAB podcast.
“It’s just the uncertainty about what the future trade landscape will look like, just at a point where most countries had signed or were on the cusp of signing trade deals.”
EUR USD
Technical Summary: EUR/USD is trading near 1.1786, maintaining a broader bullish structure while consolidating between 1.1745 support and 1.1909 resistance. After a strong impulsive rally toward the 1.2044 weak high, price retraced and is now stabilizing above the prior breakout zone at 1.1745. The structure remains constructive as long as this support holds.
Descriptive Analysis: The pair shows a strong bullish expansion followed by controlled corrective pullback, indicating profit-taking rather than structural breakdown. Price is holding above the 1.1745 demand and breakout zone, which aligns closely with the short-term moving average. The long-term moving average remains upward sloping, reinforcing bullish structure. However, repeated supply pressure below 1.1909–1.2044 suggests overhead resistance remains firm.
Data related Projection: If price sustains above 1.1745, EUR/USD may rotate higher toward 1.1909, with a breakout exposing 1.2044. A daily close above 1.1909 would confirm bullish continuation toward the 1.20+ region.
Conversely, a decisive breakdown below 1.1745 exposes 1.1583, which represents the broader demand zone. Sustained weakness below 1.1583 would shift structure toward a deeper retracement into the 1.1500 region.
Indicator Interpretation: Price remains above both the short-term VWMA and long-term moving average, confirming the broader bullish bias. Momentum indicators show cooling after the recent spike, signaling a consolidation phase rather than immediate upside continuation. Structural control remains with buyers while above 1.1745.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
Bullish continuation: Bullish continuation triggers on a sustained breakout above 1.1909, opening upside toward 1.2044.
Bearish continuation: Bearish pressure strengthens if price closes below 1.1745, targeting 1.1583.
Technical Confirmation: A strong bullish daily close above 1.1909 with expanding candle body confirms continuation.
Repeated rejection wicks near 1.1900 combined with a daily close below 1.1745 would validate a deeper corrective phase.
Facts & figures: EUR/USD movements remain sensitive to rate differential expectations between the ECB and Federal Reserve, along with overall risk sentiment. Dollar weakness typically fuels upside extensions toward major psychological resistance zones.
Daily Pivot: 1.1775, Above the pivot favors recovery attempts; sustained trading below it increases probability of downside continuation toward 1.1800.
USD JPY
Technical Summary: USD/JPY is trading near 155.99, maintaining a broader bullish structure after rebounding from the 152.21 key support zone. Price is now approaching the 155.74 resistance pivot, with major overhead supply resting near the 159.16 weak high region. The overall structure remains bullish while above 152.21.
Descriptive Analysis: The pair formed a sharp corrective decline from 159.16, followed by a strong bullish reaction from the 152.21 demand zone, indicating buyers defending structural support. Price is now attempting to reclaim the 155.74 pivot, which previously acted as mid-range resistance. The long-term moving average remains upward sloping, confirming underlying bullish trend strength. However, the 159.16 zone remains a significant supply area where prior rejection occurred.
Data related Projection: If price sustains above 155.74, USD/JPY may extend higher toward 157.00–158.00, with a retest of 159.16 likely. A daily close above 159.16 would confirm bullish continuation toward the 160+ region.
Conversely, failure to hold above 155.74 followed by a daily close below 152.21 exposes 149.11, aligning with the broader demand zone. Sustained weakness below 149.11 would signal deeper structural correction.
Indicator Interpretation: Price remains above the long-term moving average, confirming the broader bullish bias. The recent bounce from 152.21 shows momentum recovery after corrective cooling. However, momentum must expand above 155.74 to confirm sustained upside continuation rather than range-bound consolidation.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
Trigger Points: Bullish continuation triggers on a sustained breakout above 155.74, targeting 159.16.
Bearish continuation: Bearish pressure strengthens if price closes below 152.21, targeting 149.11.
Technical Confirmation: A strong bullish daily close above 155.74 with expanding candle body confirms continuation toward the weak high at 159.16.Repeated rejection near 155.74 combined with a daily close below 152.21 would validate a broader corrective phase.
Facts & figures: USD/JPY remains highly sensitive to U.S.–Japan yield differentials, Federal Reserve rate expectations, and Bank of Japan policy stance. Rising U.S. Treasury yields typically support upside extensions, while narrowing spreads increase downside correction risks.
Daily Pivot: 155.25 (CMP 155.99, trading above the pivot, indicating a short-term bullish intraday bias while testing resistance.)
Bullish Setup: Long position can be taken above R1 | Bearish Setup: Short position can be taken below S1. |
05 - COMEX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Gold remained supported with Gold consolidating near elevated levels as traders reassessed Federal Reserve rate expectations. A firm U.S. dollar capped aggressive upside, but geopolitical tensions and central bank demand continue to underpin sentiment. Price action reflects consolidation rather than trend reversal.
NEWS IMPACT: If Treasury yields ease, bullion could regain bullish momentum toward recent highs as real yields remain the primary driver. However, stronger U.S. economic data may delay rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, pressuring short-term upside. Safe-haven flows remain active amid global uncertainty.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Asian session trading was relatively stable with minor pullbacks as the dollar edged higher. ETF flows showed steady positioning while physical demand from emerging markets stayed resilient. U.S. futures were flat, limiting directional conviction in early hours.
OPINIONS: Strategists suggest gold’s broader structure remains constructive as long as macro risks and policy uncertainty persist. Analysts emphasize that sustained upside requires confirmation through softer inflation prints or clearer dovish guidance from policymakers.
GOLD
Technical Summary: Gold remains in a strong bullish market structure on the 1H timeframe. Multiple BOS (Break of Structure) confirmations are visible, with price currently consolidating below recent highs near 5,240–5,260. Short-term pullback is occurring into internal liquidity/FVG zones while higher timeframe trend remains intact above key dynamic support (50 EMA & 200 EMA).
Descriptive Analysis: After a strong impulsive rally from the 5,000 regions, price created consecutive BOS formations and established higher highs and higher lows. A recent expansion pushed price toward 5,250+ where supply pressure emerged. Currently, price is retracing toward a marked FVG zone around 5,140–5,160.
Data Related Projection: Consumer Confidence out today — prior 105.4, forecast 102.0. Weaker-than-expected print: pressure on the USD, bullish for gold toward 5,250.
Stronger-than-expected print: renewed USD strength may pull gold back to lower demand zones before resuming its trend.
Indicator Interpretation: Price remains positioned above the 50 EMA while the 200 EMA trends upward, confirming alignment with the prevailing bullish structure. Momentum has moderated following the recent high but does not yet indicate bearish dominance, suggesting consolidation within an uptrend.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: A sustained breakdown below 5,080 would weaken the current higher-low structure and expose gold to a broader retracement toward the 5,030–5,000 liquidity band.
Bullish continuation or Bearish continuation:
Bullish continuation remains favored while price sustains above the 5,080 structural bases.
Technical Confirmations: A strong bullish rejection from the 5,140-zone followed by acceptance above 5,200 would confirm continuation toward new highs, whereas a decisive close below 5,080 with expanding bearish momentum would confirm corrective extension.
Facts & figures: Gold rebounded nearly 6% from the 4,950 liquidities sweep and is currently consolidating just below its recent 5,250 peak. The metal has maintained strength above the 5,000 psychological level despite short-term pullbacks, reflecting sustained dip-buying interest while broader macro sentiment remains sensitive to U.S. dollar fluctuations.
Daily Pivot: The daily pivot is positioned near 5,150, and as long as price holds above this level, intraday bias remains tilted to the upside, while sustained trading below it may increase corrective pressure.
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after the R1 breach with TP below R2 and SL below S1. | Bearish Setup: Sell entry can be taken after the breach S1 levels. TP could be taken around S2 and SL above the Pivot point. |
06 - CRUDE OIL
Technical Summary: WTI crude oil on the 1H timeframe is trading within a short-term bullish recovery phase after forming a higher low near the 65.50 demand zone. Price recently printed a CHoCH followed by bullish continuation toward 67.30–67.50 resistance, indicating buyers are regaining short-term control while holding above key moving averages.
Descriptive Analysis: Price action is currently “compressed” following last week’s oversupply-driven sell-off. The current 49360-style pressure is mirrored here at $62.50, where bulls are attempting to form a structural double-bottom.
Data Related Projection: U.S. API crude due today. Prev +3.5M barrels; est +1.8M barrels.
If inventories are below forecast or show a drawdown → tighter supply, likely supporting oil and pushing WTI toward 67.50–68.00. If inventories print materially higher → excess supply, risking a pullback toward 65.50 support.
Indicator Interpretation: Price is trading above the 50 EMA, reflecting short-term bullish momentum, while the 200 EMA remains upward sloping, supporting broader recovery structure. Momentum remains constructive despite minor consolidation, suggesting buyers are defending higher lows.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: –
Trigger Points: A decisive breakdown below 65.50 would invalidate the higher-low formation and expose oil to deeper retracement toward 64.60 and possibly 63.80 liquidity levels.
Bullish continuation or Bearish continuation:
Bullish continuation remains favored while price sustains above 65.50 structural support.
Technical Confirmations: Acceptance above 67.50 with strong bullish momentum would confirm continuation toward 68.00+, whereas a firm close below 65.50 with expanding bearish candles would confirm corrective downside extension.
Facts & Figures: WTI has recovered nearly 4% from the 64.60 demand base and is consolidating near 67.00 after sweeping short-term liquidity. Despite recent volatility, prices remain supported above the 65.00 psychological level as supply-side expectations continue to influence short-term positioning.
Daily Pivot: $ The daily pivot is positioned near 66.40, and sustained trading above this level keeps the intraday bias constructive, while trading below it may invite renewed corrective pressure.
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after the R1 level with TP below R2 and SL below the pivot level. | Bearish Setup: Sell Stop below the S1 or take a sell once the prices face rejection from the R1 level. |
07- GLOBAL INDICES OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: The S&P 500 traded near record levels but momentum cooled as Treasury yields firmed, limiting upside in growth stocks. The Nasdaq Composite saw mild profit-taking, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed on rotation into industrial and defensive names. Investors remain cautious ahead of key inflation data.
NEWS IMPACT: Rising yields are pressuring high-valuation tech, increasing the risk of short-term consolidation in AI and semiconductor stocks. However, continued economic resilience supports cyclical sectors, keeping the broader market structure intact. Any softer inflation print could quickly revive bullish momentum.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. futures edged slightly lower following mixed global cues, while bond yields ticked higher on firm macro data. The dollar strengthened modestly, adding pressure to multinational earnings expectations. Defensive sectors saw steady inflows during overnight trade.
EXPERT OPINION: Strategists say the market remains structurally bullish but highly data-dependent, particularly on inflation trends and signals from the Federal Reserve. Analysts suggest short-term volatility may persist, but dips are likely to attract institutional buying unless macro conditions deteriorate sharply.
US 100
Technical Summary: US100 on the 1H timeframe is stabilizing after a sharp sell-off toward the 24,650-liquidity base and is now attempting a short-term recovery. Structure remains corrective within a broader range, with price reclaiming minor intraday support near 24,780 while still trading below the major 25,000–25,070 supply zone.
Descriptive Analysis- The index recently experienced an aggressive downside displacement that swept liquidity below 24,700 before attracting dip-buyers. The rebound toward 24,920–24,970 faced supply pressure, leading to consolidation around 24,800. Price is currently forming higher intraday lows, suggesting recovery momentum, but the broader structure remains vulnerable unless 25,000 is decisively reclaimed. The zone around 24,740–24,780 is acting as a short-term demand base.
Data-Related Projection: U.S. Consumer Confidence due today. Prev: 105.4 | Forecast: 102. If below forecast → weaker dollar, equities supported; US100 could extend recovery to 25,000–25,070. If above previous → higher yields, tech pressured; US100 may slip toward 24,700.
Indicator interpretation- Price is hovering around the 50 EMA while the 200 EMA remains relatively flat, reflecting consolidation rather than a strong trend. Momentum is gradually improving after the recent sell-off, but sustained strength above dynamic resistance is required to confirm bullish continuation.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: Failure to hold above 24,740 would invalidate the current recovery attempt and expose the index to renewed selling pressure toward 24,650 and possibly deeper liquidity pockets below.
Bullish continuation or Bearish continuation:
Short-term bullish recovery bias remains while price sustains above 24,740, though broader structure still requires confirmation above 25,000.
Technical Confirmations: A strong hourly close above 25,000 with follow-through momentum would confirm bullish continuation, whereas a decisive break down below 24,740 with expanding bearish volume would confirm renewed downside continuation.
Facts & figures: US100 rebounded nearly 0.6% from the 24,650 liquidities sweep after experiencing a sharp intraday liquidation. Despite the recent volatility, the index remains within its broader consolidation band, with technology sentiment sensitive to shifts in U.S. macroeconomic data and yield expectations.
Daily Pivot: The daily pivot is positioned near 24,820, and sustained trading above this level supports intraday recovery attempts, while holding below it may reintroduce selling pressure.
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