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Research Report
Date: 23 June, Monday 2025
01 Key News Insights
SUMMARY: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) held interest rates steady at 0.5% and announced a slower pace of balance sheet reduction, signaling a cautious approach to exiting its ultra-loose monetary policy amid global economic uncertainties and rising geopolitical risks.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: At its two-day policy meeting, the BOJ kept policy settings unchanged and maintained its existing bond tapering plan through March 2026. However, it revised the quantitative tightening path beyond that date, reducing the pace of drawdown into fiscal 2026 and 2027.
EXPERT OPINION: ““There are various risks to the outlook, particularly from uncertain trade policies and external economic developments,” the BOJ stated. Analysts note that escalating Middle East tensions and U.S. tariffs complicate the timing of future rate hikes.
MAJOR EVENTS: Geopolitical instability and rising U.S. protectionism have fueled demand for safe-haven assets, including the yen. The BOJ’s cautious stance helped calm bond markets, while equities saw limited reaction.
02 - Major Data and Event
03 - DOLLAR INDEX
DXY: C&C’s previous research – reported a primary uptrend for DXY, after making a high of 114.78 (52-week high). Later, following a 52-week low of 99.10. DXY has made a double bottom pattern and taken a retest from its support and breakout in daily TF and trying to test its resistance made a high of 97.91 and a low of 97.17 on Monday and close at 97.66 and now hovering around 97.61. The upcoming Retail Sales m/m data, scheduled for release today at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
04 - VIX
VIX: VIX is trading at 20.64 while writing the report, it traded lower after making a high of 21.92 in the previous trading session and previous low 19.97 finally closed at 20.13. The upcoming Retail Sales m/m data, scheduled for release today at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the U.S. Dollar Index (VIX).
05 - FOREX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Most Asian currencies weakened on Tuesday amid heightened geopolitical tensions driven by escalating Israel-Iran conflict fears, especially following alarming remarks by former U.S. President Donald Trump. The Japanese yen slightly firmer after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its policy stance and adjusted its bond tapering pace.
NEWS IMPACT: Geopolitical risk aversion weighed on regional currencies, while the U.S. dollar lost some ground after mixed messaging on Washington’s role in the Middle East. The BOJ’s cautious tone provided mild support to the yen, though broader Asian FX remained under pressure.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: The Japanese yen strengthened marginally, with USDJPY down 0.2%, following the BOJ’s decision to hold rates at 0.5% and halve the pace of bond tapering starting in April 2026. Meanwhile, the dollar slipped as the White House.
EXPERT OPINION: “Risk sentiment remains fragile,” noted Hiroshi Takagi, senior currency strategist at Mizuho. “The BOJ’s slower tapering reassures markets of policy stability, but geopolitical uncertainty and the Fed’s upcoming decision continue to drive defensive positioning in FX markets.”
EUR USD
Technical Summary: The primary trend for EURUSD is Sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing Bullish moments in its prices. A range bound consolidation pattern can be identified on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart and it is trading above the middle band of BB indicator while taking support from the daily pivot level 1.1566, It is also trying to chase its next resistance level at 1.1609. Therefore, we are identifying Buy-on-dips opportunities for intraday trading.
Descriptive Analysis: EUR/USD is attempting to move upside on the daily time frame and remains above its key pivot level (1.1566). The pair is currently trading above support levels around 1.1400, making it vulnerable to potential downward momentum. As long as it stays above the middle Bollinger Band, the bullish movement remains more likely. From a fundamental perspective. The Upcoming Retail Sales m/m data, scheduled for release today at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the EUR/USD.
Data related Projection If the Retail Sales m/m data comes in lower than expected, indicating weaker consumer spending and a more cautious outlook for the U.S. economy, the U.S. dollar could weaken, putting upward pressure on EUR/USD.
Indicator Interpretation: Currently, EUR/USD prices are moving towards the lower Bollinger Band (BB) level on the H4 chart, and the BB indicator is expanding, signaling increased volatility. Additionally, the CCI indicator is moving towards the negative territory, indicating a potential downward move in the pair.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points If the Retail Sales m/m data comes in higher than expected, indicating stronger consumer spending and a more optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy, the U.S. dollar could strengthen, putting downward pressure on EUR/USD.
Technical Confirmation: If EUR/USD continues to trade above the middle band of the BB Indicator, and the CCI starts moving towards positive territory, then the above-mentioned triggers will confirm buying pressure in the currency pair.
Facts & Figures: EUR/USD and USD/JPY are often negatively correlated due to the differing risk dynamics associated with the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. While the Australian dollar is typically viewed as a risk-sensitive currency, benefiting from positive market sentiment, the Japanese yen is often considered a safe-haven asset, strengthening during times of uncertainty.
Daily Pivot: 1.1566 (CMP is 1.1567 which is trading above the pivot levels while writing this report).
USD CHF
Technical Summary: The primary trend for USDCHF is Sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing a sideways moment in its prices. We can identify a clear rectangle pattern forming in USDCHF (H4); today it is trading below middle band of the BB indicator and also taking resistance from upper band of BB indicator. So, we are identifying sell-on-rise opportunities for intraday.
Descriptive Analysis: USDCHF is trying to move downward in the daily time frame, towards its support level at 0.8160 and it is trading below pivot levels (0.8125). This indicates that bearish movement is stronger. If we look at the fundamental side of it. The Upcoming Retail Sales m/m data, scheduled for release today at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the USD/CHF.
Data related Projection If the Retail Sales m/m data comes in lower than expected, it suggests weakening consumer spending and a deteriorating outlook for the U.S. economy, which could weigh on the dollar and lead to a bearish move in USD/CHF.
Indicator Interpretation: Currently, USD/CHF prices are moving downward and trading below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands (BB). The pair is attempting to move towards the middle band support, while the CCI indicator is also showing a sideways to negative reading. Therefore, we can expect a downward move in USD/CHF prices today.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points: If the Retail Sales m/m data comes in higher than expected, it suggests strengthening consumer spending and an improving outlook for the U.S. economy, which could support the dollar and lead to a bullish move in USD/CHF.
Technical Confirmation: If USD/CHF continues to trade below the Middle band of the BB Indicator, and the CCI starts moving towards negative territory, then the above-mentioned triggers will confirm selling pressure in the currency pair.
Facts & figures: The USDCHF currency pair has always had a near-perfect negative correlation with the EURUSD pair. This means that the USDCHF will tend to rise when the EUR/USD falls, and vice versa.
Daily Pivot: 0.8125 (CMP is 0.8124 which is trading below pivot while writing this report.)
05 - COMEX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Gold prices steadied in Asian trade on Tuesday after Monday’s pullback, as markets weighed mixed signals around a possible Israel-Iran ceasefire and the uncertain role of the U.S. in the conflict. Safe-haven demand remained broadly supported by geopolitical risks.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,392.25/oz, while August gold futures slipped 0.2% to $3,410.70/oz by early Tuesday trade. Bullion briefly surged past $3,450/oz on Monday before retreating sharply as hopes for a ceasefire temporarily boosted risk sentiment.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Gold reversed part of its recent gains after reports surfaced that Iran was open to ceasefire talks, spurring a wave of profit-taking. However, Tehran later denied any plans to de-escalate under fire, and a stark warning from former U.S. President Trump.
OPINIONS: “Gold is caught between geopolitical risk and shifting headlines,” said analysts at TD Securities. “Any confirmed escalation, particularly involving direct U.S. engagement, could trigger a sharp rally in bullion. But ceasefire hopes are capping upside for now.”
GOLD
Technical Summary: The primary trend for XAUUSD is uptrend, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing Bearish moments in its prices. We can identify a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern forming in XAU/USD on the 4-hour chart (H4), and it is trading above the middle band of BB indicator while taking resistance from the daily pivot level 3406, It is also trying to chase its next support level at 3361. Therefore, we are identifying Sell on rise opportunities for intraday trading.
Descriptive Analysis: On the 4-hour (H4) chart, Gold is trading above the lower band of the Bollinger Bands (BB) indicator, with the bands sloping downward, indicating bullish momentum. However, the RSI is currently below 50, indicating neutral zone.
Data Related Projection: The upcoming Retail Sales m/m data, scheduled for release today at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the XAU/USD. If the Retail Sales m/m data comes in higher than expected, it suggests strengthening consumer spending and a more positive outlook for the U.S. economy, which could strengthen the dollar and put downward pressure on XAU/USD.
Indicator Interpretation: The price is currently trading below the BB middle band. If it faces resistance here, we may see a corrective rally toward its lower band.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: If the Retail Sales m/m data comes in lower than expected, it suggests weakening consumer spending and a more negative outlook for the U.S. economy, which could weaken the dollar and put upward pressure on XAU/USD.
Technical Confirmations: If price took resistance at middle band of BB and hold below the levels, we can see gold price may give a bearish rally and can also breaks the lower band.
Facts & figures: Gold is often viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty and market volatility.
Daily Pivot: 3406 (CMP is 3384 & prices are trading below the pivot level while writing the report)
06 - CRUDE OIL
SUMMARY: Oil prices rose on Tuesday amid renewed concerns that the Israel-Iran conflict could escalate further, increasing the risk of supply disruptions from the oil-rich Middle East. The gains followed a sharp pullback on Monday, which was fueled by temporary optimism over ceasefire reports.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Brent crude futures climbed 34 cents (0.5%) to $73.57/bbl, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 29 cents (0.4%) to $72.06/bbl by early Tuesday trade. Both benchmarks had gained over 2% earlier in the session before paring gains. Monday saw prices settle more than 1% lower on easing tensions.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Hopes for de-escalation faded quickly after former U.S. President Trump called for evacuation of Tehran, intensifying fears of imminent conflict. Iranian media reported explosions and air defense activity in Tehran, while Israeli cities like Tel Aviv were targeted by missile strikes.
OPINIONS: “The conflict between Iran and Israel is still fresh and brewing, and investor sentiments may still be holding on to the ‘war risks,’” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. “Added volatility and caution ahead of the Fed policy decision are further ensuring higher-paced price reactions in oil markets.”
CRUDE OIL
Technical Summary: The primary trend for Crude oil is sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing bullish moments in its prices. We can identify a Range Bound Consolidation pattern in WTI (H4), and it is trading above middle band of BB indicator and taking support from the daily pivot level 70.34, it is also trying to chase its resistance level of 72.86 So, we are identifying buy on dips opportunities for intraday.
Descriptive Analysis: In 4hr-TF Crude oil trading above middle band of the BB indicator, and the bands are also angle downward with the price, indicating some upside movement in the price. Although the RSI at 50 indicating neutral zone.
Data Related Projection: The upcoming Retail Sales m/m data, scheduled for release today at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on WTI/USD. If the Retail Sales m/m data comes in lower than expected, it suggests weakening consumer spending and a softer outlook for the U.S. economy, which could weaken the dollar and put upward pressure on WTI/USD.
Indicator Interpretation: If prices find support at the lower band of the Bollinger Bands indicator, we could see a retracement toward the middle band.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: –
Trigger Points: If the Retail Sales m/m data comes in higher than expected, it suggests improving consumer spending and a stronger outlook for the U.S. economy, which could strengthen the dollar and put downward pressure on WTI/USD.
Technical Confirmations: Currently, the prices of WTIUSD trading below the Middle band of the BB indicator. If price breaks the middle band, we are expecting price may give a bullish rally.
Facts & Figures: Countries maintain strategic oil reserves to ensure energy security and stability during supply disruptions.
Daily Pivot: 70.34 (CMP is 70.28 & and prices are trading below the pivot levels while writing this report.)
07- GLOBAL INDICES OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and signaled a slower pace of balance sheet reduction starting fiscal 2026, as it adopts a cautious approach to unwinding its long-standing monetary stimulus amid heightened geopolitical and trade risks.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: At its two-day policy meeting ending Tuesday, the BOJ maintained its policy rate by unanimous vote and announced it would halve the pace of its quarterly bond purchase reductions starting April 2026. Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the need to balance market stability with policy normalization.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Governor Ueda warned that sustained tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices could fuel inflation expectations, while trade tensions might pressure corporate profits and trigger cost-cutting price strategies.
EXPERT OPINION: “Tapering too quickly could destabilize markets,” Ueda noted. “At the same time, prolonged inflation driven by external shocks could alter household expectations, so the BOJ must stay vigilant to both upside and downside risks to the inflation outlook.”
US 30
Technical Summary: The US30 index is currently trading in a sideways consolidation, hovering around the middle Bollinger Band, with no clear directional bias. Price action has lost some bullish momentum, evidenced by lower highs and a recent failure to sustain above the 42,800-resistance level.
Descriptive Analysis- US30 is currently showing neutral to slightly bearish momentum on the H4 chart, consolidating below the middle Bollinger Band and hovering below the key pivot level of 42,406. The price is encountering support near 42,102, and recent candles show rejection at higher levels, suggesting weakening bullish strength. RSI is currently hovering below the 50 marks. Considering fundamental aspects. The Upcoming Retail Sales m/m data, scheduled for release on today at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the US30.
Data-Related Projection: If the Retail Sales m/m data comes in higher than expected, it suggests strengthening consumer spending and an improving economic outlook, which can reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts. This may weigh on US30, as higher interest rates increase borrowing costs and tighten market liquidity.
Indicator interpretation- Prices of US30 are hovering above the upper band of the BB and RSI showing reading above 50 which is supporting our bullish view.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: If the Retail Sales m/m data comes in lower than expected, it suggests weakening consumer spending and a deteriorating economic outlook, which can increase expectations for Fed rate cuts. This may support US30, as lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs and improve market liquidity.
Technical Confirmations: If US30 starts to move above the middle band of the BB Indicator and RSI starts showing positive figures, then US30 will also move towards upper levels.
Facts & figures: Market expectations, risk tolerance, and investor confidence are just a few factors that can have a substantial impact on the US30 index. Positive sentiment, driven by favorable news, optimistic outlooks, and a general belief in market growth, can drive the index higher. Conversely, negative sentiment, driven by concerns, uncertainty, or fear, can lead to a decline.
Daily Pivot: 42406 (CMP is 42293, and the prices are trading below the pivot level while writing the report)
08 - Disclaimer
- CFD trading involves substantial risk, and potential losses may exceed the initial investment.
- Signals and analysis are based on historical data, technical analysis, and market trends.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results; market conditions can change rapidly.
- Consider your risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in CFD trading.
- Signals are for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
- Each trader is responsible for their decisions; trade at your own risk.
- The report does not consider individual financial situations or risk tolerances.
- Consult with financial professionals if uncertain about the risks involved.
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