Research Report
01 Key News Insights
Date: 12th November, Wednesday 2025
MARKET HEADLINES
SUMMARY: Japan’s three largest banks — Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG), and Mizuho Financial Group — are expected to report strong second-quarter earnings on Friday, keeping them on course for record annual profits this fiscal year.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: The banks’ share prices have already surged sharply since early 2024, with MUFG up 90%, SMFG up 80%, and Mizuho up 105%, outperforming the 39% rise in the Topix index. However, optimism was tempered recently after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
EXPERT OPINION: ““While the banking sector’s strong fundamentals are well recognized, for Japanese banks to outperform from here, a fresh catalyst is needed,” said Shinichiro Nakamura, Managing Director at Bank of America Securities.
MAJOR EVENTS: The BOJ’s October meeting signaled that gradual interest rate normalization will continue, supporting expectations of a rate hike to 0.75% in December or January. Such a move would further enhance banks’ profitability.
02 - Major Data and Event
03 - DOLLAR INDEX
DXY: C&C’s previous research – reported a primary uptrend for DXY, after making a high of 114.78 (52-week high). Later, following a 52-week low of 99.10. DXY has made a sideways pattern and taken a retest from its resistance and breakdown in daily TF and trying to test its support made a high of 99.73 and a low of 99.28 on and close at 99.46 and now hovering around 99.50. The upcoming Core Retail Sales m/m data, scheduled for release on Friday at 7:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
04 - VIX
VIX: VIX is trading at 17.29 while writing the report, it traded Lower after making a high of 18.82 in the previous trading session and previous low 17.60 finally closed at 17.60. The upcoming Core Retail Sales m/m data, scheduled for release on Friday at 7:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the Volatility Index (VIX).
05 - FOREX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: The World Bank and other multilateral development banks (MDBs) are under growing pressure to step up support for poorer nations struggling with energy crises and worsening climate disasters. These institutions, funded largely by national governments.
NEWS IMPACT: Developing countries are urging MDBs to accelerate lending and increase climate-related financing, especially for projects that help nations adapt to rising sea levels, heat waves, and other impacts of global warming.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Reform discussions have intensified among major shareholders, with calls for MDBs to expand their balance sheets, take on more risk, and focus on climate action as a core mission. The World Bank has already begun revising its lending framework to enable greater climate and crisis financing.
EXPERT OPINION: “Multilateral banks must evolve to meet the scale of today’s global challenges,” said a World Bank spokesperson. “By modernizing their mandates and leveraging capital more efficiently, MDBs can provide faster, more targeted support to vulnerable countries facing the climate crisis.”
EUR USD
Technical Summary: The primary trend for EURUSD is Bearish, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing Bearish moments in its prices. A range bound consolidation pattern can be identified on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart and it is trading above the middle band of BB indicator while taking support from the daily pivot level 1.1578 It is also trying to chase its next support level at 1.1537. Therefore, we are identifying sell-on-rise opportunities for intraday trading.
Descriptive Analysis: EUR/USD is attempting to move downside on the daily time frame and remains above its key pivot level (1.1486). The pair is currently trading at resistance levels around 1.1500, making it vulnerable to potential downward momentum. As long as it stays above the middle Bollinger Band, the bullish movement remains more likely. From a fundamental perspective. The Upcoming Core Retail Sales m/m data, scheduled for release on Friday at 7:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the EUR/USD.
Data related Projection If the Core Retail Sales data comes in higher than expected, signaling stronger consumer spending and a resilient U.S. economy, the U.S. dollar could strengthen, putting downward pressure on EUR/USD.
Indicator Interpretation: Currently, EUR/USD prices are moving towards the upper Bollinger Band (BB) level on the H4 chart, and the BB indicator is expanding, signaling increased volatility. Additionally, the CCI indicator is moving towards the positive territory, indicating a potential upward move in the pair.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points If the Core Retail Sales data comes in lower than expected, signaling weaker consumer spending and a cooling U.S. economy, the U.S. dollar could weaken, putting upward pressure on EUR/USD.
Technical Confirmation: If EUR/USD continues to trade above the middle band of the BB Indicator, and the CCI starts moving towards positive territory, then the above-mentioned triggers will confirm buying pressure in the currency pair.
Facts & Figures: EUR/USD and USD/JPY are often negatively correlated due to the differing risk dynamics associated with the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. While the Australian dollar is typically viewed as a risk-sensitive currency, benefiting from positive market sentiment, the Japanese yen is often considered a safe-haven asset, strengthening during times of uncertainty.
Daily Pivot: 1.1578 (CMP is 1.1586 which is trading above the pivot levels while writing this report).
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after R1 level breakout. | Bearish Setup: Short position can be taken on S1 breakdown |
USD CHF
Technical Summary: The primary trend for USDCHF is Sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing a bullish moment in its prices. We can identify a clear rectangle pattern forming in USDCHF (H4); today it is trading above middle band of the BB indicator and also taking resistance from upper band of BB indicator. So, we are identifying Sell-on-rise opportunities for intraday.
Descriptive Analysis: USDCHF is trying to move upward in the daily time frame, towards its resistance level at 0.8110 and it is trading above pivot levels (0.8018). This indicates that bearish movement is stronger. If we look at the fundamental side of it. The Upcoming Core Retail Sales m/m data, scheduled for release on Friday at 7:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the USD/CHF.
Data related Projection If the Core Retail Sales data comes in higher than expected, it signals stronger consumer spending and solid economic momentum, which could boost the U.S. dollar and lead to a bullish move in USD/CHF.
Indicator Interpretation: Currently, USD/CHF prices are moving downward and trading below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands (BB). The pair is attempting to move towards the middle band support, while the CCI indicator is also showing a sideways to negative reading. Therefore, we can expect a downward move in USD/CHF prices today.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points: If the Core Retail Sales data comes in lower than expected, it signals weaker consumer spending and slowing economic momentum, which could weigh on the U.S. dollar and lead to a bearish move in USD/CHF.
Technical Confirmation: If USD/CHF continues to trade below the Middle band of the BB Indicator, and the CCI starts moving towards negative territory, then the above-mentioned triggers will confirm selling pressure in the currency pair.
Facts & figures: The USDCHF currency pair has always had a near-perfect negative correlation with the EURUSD pair. This means that the USDCHF will tend to rise when the EUR/USD falls, and vice versa.
Daily Pivot: 0.8055 (CMP is 0.8049 which is trading below pivot while writing this report.)
Bullish Setup: Long position can be taken above R1 | Bearish Setup: Short position can be taken below S1. |
05 - COMEX OUTLOOK
Technical Summary: The primary trend for XAUUSD is uptrend, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing Bullish moments in its prices. We can identify a Descending channel Pattern forming in XAU/USD on the 4-hour chart (H4), and it is trading above the middle band of BB indicator while taking support from the daily pivot level 4124, It is also trying to chase its next resistance level at 4042. Therefore, we are identifying Buy on dips opportunities for intraday trading.
Descriptive Analysis: On the 4-hour (H4) chart, Gold is trading below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands (BB) indicator, with the bands sloping upward, indicating bullish momentum. However, the RSI is currently above 50, indicating momentum.
Data Related Projection: The upcoming Core Retail Sales m/m data, scheduled for release on Friday at 7:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on XAU/USD. If the Core Retail Sales data comes in lower than expected, it indicates weaker consumer spending and slowing economic momentum, which could weaken the U.S. dollar and put upward pressure on XAU/USD.
Indicator Interpretation: The price is currently trading below the BB middle band. If it faces resistance here, we may see a corrective rally toward its lower band.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: If the Core Retail Sales data comes in higher than expected, it indicates stronger consumer spending and robust economic momentum, which could strengthen the U.S. dollar and put downward pressure on XAU/USD.
Technical Confirmations: If price took resistance at middle band of BB and hold below the levels, we can see gold price may give a bearish rally and can also breaks the lower band.
Facts & figures: Gold is often viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty and market volatility.
Daily Pivot: 4124 (CMP is 4115 & prices are trading below the pivot level while writing the report)
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after the R1 breach with TP below R2 and SL below S1. | Bearish Setup: Sell entry can be taken after the breach S1 levels. TP could be taken around S2 and SL above the Pivot point. |
GOLD
Technical Summary : The primary trend for XAUUSD is uptrend, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing Bullish moments in its prices. We can identify a Descending channel Pattern forming in XAU/USD on the 4-hour chart (H4), and it is trading above the middle band of BB indicator while taking support from the daily pivot level 4078, It is also trying to chase its next resistance level at 4042. Therefore, we are identifying Buy on dips opportunities for intraday trading.
Descriptive Analysis : On the 4-hour (H4) chart, Gold is trading below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands (BB) indicator, with the bands sloping upward, indicating bullish momentum. However, the RSI is currently above 50, indicating momentum.
Data Related Projection : The upcoming Core Retail Sales m/m data, scheduled for release on Friday at 7:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on XAU/USD. If the Core Retail Sales data comes in lower than expected, it indicates weaker consumer spending and slowing economic momentum, which could weaken the U.S. dollar and put upward pressure on XAU/USD.
Indicator Interpretation : The price is currently trading below the BB middle band. If it faces resistance here, we may see a corrective rally toward its lower band.
Alternative Scenario :
Trigger Points : If the Core Retail Sales data comes in higher than expected, it indicates stronger consumer spending and robust economic momentum, which could strengthen the U.S. dollar and put downward pressure on XAU/USD.
Technical Confirmations : “If price took resistance at middle band of BB and hold below the levels, we can see gold price may give a bearish rally and can also breaks the lower band.
Facts & figures : Gold is often viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty and market volatility.
Daily Pivot : 4078 (CMP is 4129 & prices are trading above the pivot level while writing the report)
| Bullish Setup : Buy position can be taken after the R1 breach with TP below R2 and SL below S1. | Bearish Setup : Sell entry can be taken after the breach S1 levels. TP could be taken around S2 and SL above the Pivot point. |
06 - CRUDE OIL
Technical Summary : The primary trend for Crude oil is sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing bearish moments in its prices. We can identify downward sloping channel pattern in WTI (H4), and it is trading above middle band of BB indicator and taking resistance from the daily pivot level 59.80, it is also trying to chase its resistance level of 58.76 So, we are identifying Sell on rise opportunities for intraday.
Descriptive Analysis : In 4hr-TF Crude oil trading above middle band of the BB indicator, and the bands are also angle downward with the price, indicating some upside movement in the price. Although the RSI at 50 indicating neutral zone.
Data Related Projection : The upcoming Core Retail Sales m/m data, scheduled for release on Friday at 7:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on WTI/USD. If the Core Retail Sales data comes in higher than expected, it indicates stronger consumer spending and a resilient U.S. economy, which could strengthen the U.S. dollar and put downward pressure on WTI/USD.
Indicator Interpretation : If prices find support at the lower band of the Bollinger Bands indicator, we could see a retracement toward the middle band.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO : –
Trigger Points : If the Core Retail Sales data comes in lower than expected, it indicates weaker consumer spending and a slowing U.S. economy, which could weaken the U.S. dollar and put upward pressure on WTI/USD.
Technical Confirmations : Currently, the prices of WTIUSD trading below the Middle band of the BB indicator. If price breaks the middle band, we are expecting price may give a bullish rally.
Facts & Figures : Countries maintain strategic oil reserves to ensure energy security and stability during supply disruptions.
Daily Pivot : 59.80 (CMP is 59.69 & and prices are trading below the pivot levels while writing this report.)
Bullish Setup : | Bearish Setup : |
07- GLOBAL INDICES OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Japan’s government plans to boost spending “without hesitation” to support an economy emerging from years of stagnation, according to a draft of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s upcoming stimulus package seen by Reuters.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: The draft does not specify the total spending size but indicates significant fiscal expansion. Key measures include subsidies to lower utility and gasoline costs, aid for firms affected by U.S. tariffs, and a likely increase in defense spending.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Takaishi’s administration is expected to finalize the stimulus package later this month and propose a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year to finance part of the spending. The initiative signals Tokyo’s readiness to use aggressive fiscal measures to sustain growth momentum.
EXPERT OPINION: “The size of the package will be quite large, given the economy’s continued need for fiscal support and the wide range of investment areas outlined,” analysts at Daiwa Securities said. “This reflects the government’s strong commitment to boosting demand and accelerating Japan’s transition toward a growth-driven economy.”
US 30
Technical Summary: The US30 index continues to maintain its bullish structure, but recent candles indicate signs of exhaustion near the upper Bollinger Band. While the index remains in an uptrend, price is now showing consolidation above 47,500 marks, hinting at potential resistance in the short term.
Descriptive Analysis- US30 is currently showing bullish momentum on the H4 chart, trading above the middle Bollinger Band and hovering below the key pivot level of 47749. The price is encountering resistance near 48,000, and, suggesting bearish strength. RSI is currently hovering above the 50 marks. Considering fundamental aspects. The Upcoming Core Retail Sales m/m data, scheduled for release on Friday at 7:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the US30.
Data-Related Projection: If the Core Retail Sales data comes in lower than expected, it indicates weaker consumer spending and slowing economic momentum, which could increase expectations for Fed rate cuts. This may support US30, as lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs and improve market liquidity.
Indicator interpretation- Prices of US30 are hovering above the upper band of the BB and RSI showing reading above 50 which is supporting our bullish view.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: If the Core Retail Sales data comes in higher than expected, it indicates stronger consumer spending and robust economic momentum, which could reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts. This may weigh on US30, as higher interest rates increase borrowing costs and tighten market liquidity.
Technical Confirmations: If US30 starts to move above the middle band of the BB Indicator and RSI starts showing positive figures, then US30 will also move towards upper levels.
Facts & figures: Market expectations, risk tolerance, and investor confidence are just a few factors that can have a substantial impact on the US30 index. Positive sentiment, driven by favorable news, optimistic outlooks, and a general belief in market growth, can drive the index higher. Conversely, negative sentiment, driven by concerns, uncertainty, or fear, can lead to a decline.
Daily Pivot: 47749 (CMP is 47989 and the prices are trading above the pivot level while writing the report)
Bullish Setup: Buying can be done for short movements. If prices break the R1 then it triggers a bullish shot up in prices which we can catch for the TP of R2 and SL below S2. | Bearish Setup: Trend is friend. Winning probability of bearish position is high as per the technical setup. Although it’s time to take aggressive sell position from the CMP or from R1. |
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