Research Report
01 Key News Insights
Date: 27 June, Friday 2025
SUMMARY: Asian equities edged higher and crude oil remained near multi-week lows as a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran calmed investor nerves and revived demand for riskier assets. The U.S. dollar hovered near a four-year low against the euro.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Markets welcomed signs of a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, with U.S. President Donald Trump declaring an end to hostilities. Despite Israeli warnings of potential retaliation, the truce has so far held.
EXPERT OPINION: “Despite the ceasefire between Israel and Iran appearing somewhat tenuous, the markets are shrugging it off,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com.
MAJOR EVENTS: Oil prices slid to two-week lows on reduced fears of a Middle East supply shock. Two-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to 1.5-month lows as bond markets priced out inflation risks. Asian stock indices posted modest gains: Nikkei +0.3%, Hang Seng +0.8%, Taiwan +0.9%, China blue chips +0.5%.
02 - Major Data and Event
03 - DOLLAR INDEX
DXY: C&C’s previous research – reported a primary uptrend for DXY, after making a high of 114.78 (52-week high). Later, following a 52-week low of 99.10. DXY has made a double top pattern and taken a retest from its resistance and breakdown in daily TF and trying to test its support made a high of 97.81 and a low of 97.24 on Tuesday and close at 97.49 and now hovering around 97.50. The upcoming Core PCE Price Index m/m data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
04 - VIX
VIX: VIX is trading at 19.44 while writing the report, it traded lower after making a high of 20.62 in the previous trading session and previous low 19.46 finally closed at 19.51. The upcoming Core PCE Price Index m/m data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the Volatility Index (VIX).
05 - FOREX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: The U.S. dollar weakened on Tuesday after President Donald Trump confirmed a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, prompting a risk-on rally that boosted global sentiment. Most Asian currencies gained.
NEWS IMPACT: Dollar strength faded as investors scaled back geopolitical risk premiums and reassessed the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts. This backdrop supported regional and risk-sensitive currencies, with the Australian dollar and South Korean won seeing solid gains.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: The Dollar Index (DXY) slipped 0.3% to 97.752, retreating from earlier highs. The Australian dollar (AUDUSD) climbed 0.5% on renewed risk appetite. The Japanese yen (USDJPY) weakened 0.5% as safe haven demand receded.
EXPERT OPINION: “Risk appetite is returning, but with caution,” said Hiroshi Takagi, senior currency strategist at Mizuho. “The ceasefire news is encouraging, but markets are waiting for confirmation from both Iran and Israel. Meanwhile, Fed rate cut expectations are weighing on the dollar and helping Asia FX.”
EUR USD
Technical Summary: The primary trend for EURUSD is Sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing Bullish moments in its prices. A range bound consolidation pattern can be identified on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart and it is trading above the middle band of BB indicator while taking support from the daily pivot level 1.1608, It is also trying to chase its next resistance level at 1.1642. Therefore, we are identifying Buy-on-dips opportunities for intraday trading.
Descriptive Analysis: EUR/USD is attempting to move upside on the daily time frame and remains above its key pivot level (1.1608). The pair is currently trading above support levels around 1.1500, making it vulnerable to potential upward momentum. As long as it stays above the middle Bollinger Band, the bullish movement remains more likely. From a fundamental perspective. The Upcoming Core PCE Price Index m/m data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the EUR/USD.
Data related Projection If the Core PCE Price Index m/m data comes in lower than expected, signaling softer inflation and reduced pricing pressures, the U.S. dollar could weaken, putting upward pressure on EUR/USD, as markets may price in a more dovish Fed stance.
Indicator Interpretation: Currently, EUR/USD prices are moving towards the upper Bollinger Band (BB) level on the H4 chart, and the BB indicator is expanding, signaling increased volatility. Additionally, the CCI indicator is moving towards the positive territory, indicating a potential upward move in the pair.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points If the Core PCE Price Index m/m data comes in higher than expected, signaling stronger inflation and increasing pricing pressures, the U.S. dollar could strengthen, putting downward pressure on EUR/USD, as markets may price in a more hawkish Fed stance.
Technical Confirmation: If EUR/USD continues to trade above the middle band of the BB Indicator, and the CCI starts moving towards positive territory, then the above-mentioned triggers will confirm buying pressure in the currency pair.
Facts & Figures: EUR/USD and USD/JPY are often negatively correlated due to the differing risk dynamics associated with the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. While the Australian dollar is typically viewed as a risk-sensitive currency, benefiting from positive market sentiment, the Japanese yen is often considered a safe-haven asset, strengthening during times of uncertainty.
Daily Pivot: 1.1608 (CMP is 1.1601 which is trading below the pivot levels while writing this report).
USD CHF
Technical Summary: The primary trend for USDCHF is Sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing a sideways moment in its prices. We can identify a clear rectangle pattern forming in USDCHF (H4); today it is trading below middle band of the BB indicator and also taking resistance from upper band of BB indicator. So, we are identifying sell-on-rise opportunities for intraday.
Descriptive Analysis: USDCHF is trying to move downward in the daily time frame, towards its support level at 0.8160 and it is trading below pivot levels (0.8073). This indicates that bearish movement is stronger. If we look at the fundamental side of it. The Upcoming Core PCE Price Index m/m data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the USD/CHF.
Data related Projection If the Core PCE Price Index m/m data comes in lower than expected, it suggests softer inflation and easing price pressures, which could weigh on the U.S. dollar and lead to a bearish move in USD/CHF, as markets may anticipate a more dovish Fed stance.
Indicator Interpretation: Currently, USD/CHF prices are moving downward and trading below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands (BB). The pair is attempting to move towards the middle band support, while the CCI indicator is also showing a sideways to negative reading. Therefore, we can expect a downward move in USD/CHF prices today.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points: If the Core PCE Price Index m/m data comes in higher than expected, it suggests stronger inflation and mounting price pressures, which could strengthen the U.S. dollar and lead to a bullish move in USD/CHF, as markets may anticipate a more hawkish Fed stance.
Technical Confirmation: If USD/CHF continues to trade below the Middle band of the BB Indicator, and the CCI starts moving towards negative territory, then the above-mentioned triggers will confirm selling pressure in the currency pair.
Facts & figures: The USDCHF currency pair has always had a near-perfect negative correlation with the EURUSD pair. This means that the USDCHF will tend to rise when the EUR/USD falls, and vice versa.
Daily Pivot: 0.8073 (CMP is 0.8052 which is trading below pivot while writing this report.)
05 - COMEX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Gold prices edged higher in Asian trade on Wednesday, recovering slightly after a sharp decline in the previous session. The metal found support from a weaker U.S. dollar, even as optimism surrounding a ceasefire between Israel and Iran continued to dampen safe-haven demand.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,329.93/oz, while August gold futures gained 0.3% to $3,344.70/oz by early Wednesday trade. The recovery came after Tuesday’s 1% drop, driven by President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire. A softer dollar limited the downside, but overall risk appetite weighed on bullion prices.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Markets responded swiftly to Monday’s ceasefire declaration by President Trump, which followed heightened conflict between Israel and Iran, including mutual strikes and U.S. involvement. Despite the truce, skepticism lingers.
OPINIONS: “Gold is under pressure from improving risk appetite, but geopolitical tensions haven’t fully abated,” said analysts at TD Securities. “Traders are wary of further flare-ups, especially given the fragile nature of the ceasefire and Powell’s upcoming congressional testimony.”
GOLD
Technical Summary: The primary trend for XAUUSD is uptrend, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing Bullish moments in its prices. We can identify a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern forming in XAU/USD on the 4-hour chart (H4), and it is trading below the middle band of BB indicator while taking support from the daily pivot level 3327, It is also trying to chase its next resistance level at 3359. Therefore, we are identifying Buy on dips opportunities for intraday trading.
Descriptive Analysis: On the 4-hour (H4) chart, Gold is trading above the lower band of the Bollinger Bands (BB) indicator, with the bands sloping downward, indicating bullish momentum. However, the RSI is currently below 50, indicating neutral zone.
Data Related Projection: The upcoming Core PCE Price Index m/m data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the XAU/USD. If the Core PCE Price Index m/m data comes in lower than expected, it indicates softer inflation and reduced-price pressures, which could weaken the U.S. dollar and put upward pressure on XAU/USD, as markets may anticipate a more dovish stance from the Fed.
Indicator Interpretation: The price is currently trading below the BB middle band. If it faces resistance here, we may see a corrective rally toward its lower band.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: If the Core PCE Price Index m/m data comes in higher than expected, it indicates rising inflationary pressures, which could strengthen the U.S. dollar and put downward pressure on XAU/USD, as markets may anticipate tighter monetary policy from the Fed.
Technical Confirmations: If price took resistance at middle band of BB and hold below the levels, we can see gold price may give a bearish rally and can also breaks the lower band.
Facts & figures: Gold is often viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty and market volatility.
Daily Pivot: 3327 (CMP is 3331 & prices are trading above the pivot level while writing the report)
06 - CRUDE OIL
SUMMARY: Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday but remained near multi-week lows as markets weighed the durability of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. While the truce eased fears of major supply disruptions, gains were limited by signs of stable global crude supply and fading geopolitical risk premiums.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Brent crude futures rose $0.85 (1.3%) to $67.99/bbl., while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $0.87 (1.4%) to $65.24/bbl. by early Wednesday trade. Despite the rebound, both benchmarks held near their lowest levels since early June after Tuesday’s steep losses on easing war concerns.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday as both Israel and Iran signaled an end to 12 days of hostilities, following a U.S.-brokered ceasefire. The truce came after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and subsequent missile attacks on U.S. bases.
OPINIONS: “Global energy prices are moderating following the Israel-Iran ceasefire. The base case for our oil strategists remains anchored by fundamentals, which indicate sufficient global oil supply, “said JPMorgan analysts. “With the ceasefire news we are now seeing a continuation of the risk premium built into crude oil price last week all but evaporate,” noted Tony Sycamore of IG.
CRUDE OIL
Technical Summary: The primary trend for Crude oil is sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing bullish moments in its prices. We can identify a Range Bound Consolidation pattern in WTI (H4), and it is trading above middle band of BB indicator and taking resistance from the daily pivot level 65.21, it is also trying to chase its resistance level of 66.72 So, we are identifying Buy on dips opportunities for intraday.
Descriptive Analysis: In 4hr-TF Crude oil trading above middle band of the BB indicator, and the bands are also angle downward with the price, indicating some upside movement in the price. Although the RSI at 50 indicating neutral zone.
Data Related Projection: The upcoming Core PCE Price Index m/m data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on WTI/USD. If the Core PCE Price Index m/m data comes in lower than expected, it suggests softer inflation and reduced-price pressures, which could weaken the U.S. dollar and put upward pressure on WTI/USD.
Indicator Interpretation: If prices find support at the lower band of the Bollinger Bands indicator, we could see a retracement toward the middle band.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: –
Trigger Points: If the Core PCE Price Index m/m data comes in higher than expected, it suggests rising inflation and increased price pressures, which could strengthen the U.S. dollar and put downward pressure on WTI/USD.
Technical Confirmations: Currently, the prices of WTIUSD trading below the Middle band of the BB indicator. If price breaks the middle band, we are expecting price may give a bullish rally.
Facts & Figures: Countries maintain strategic oil reserves to ensure energy security and stability during supply disruptions.
Daily Pivot: 65.21 (CMP is 65.20 & and prices are trading below the pivot levels while writing this report.)
07- GLOBAL INDICES OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura signaled a hawkish turn in policy stance on Wednesday, stating the BOJ may need to raise interest rates “decisively” to combat rising inflation, even amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs. His remarks suggest growing concern within the central bank over persistent price pressures.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Tamura’s comments indicate a potential shift in the BOJ’s trajectory, with the possibility of earlier-than-expected rate hikes. This contrasts with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s more cautious tone, and could heighten market expectations.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Speaking to business leaders in Fukushima, Tamura noted that inflation was accelerating faster than anticipated at the May 1 policy meeting. He warned that companies are increasingly likely to pass on rising labor costs through higher service prices.
EXPERT OPINION: “If upward inflation risks heighten, the BOJ may need to act decisively as a guardian of price stability,” Tamura said. His remarks mark a stark contrast to Governor Ueda’s emphasis on caution, highlighting internal divisions within the board over the pace of normalization.
US 30
Technical Summary: The US30 index is currently trading in a sideways consolidation, hovering around the upper Bollinger Band, with no clear directional bias. Price action has some bullish momentum, evidenced by higher highs and a recent successful attempt to sustain above the 43,000-resistance level.
Descriptive Analysis- US30 is currently showing neutral to slightly bullish momentum on the H4 chart, consolidating above the middle Bollinger Band and hovering below the key pivot level of 42,945. The price is encountering resistance near 43,000, and, suggesting bullish strength. RSI is currently hovering above the 50 marks. Considering fundamental aspects. The Upcoming Core PCE Price Index m/m data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the US30.
Data-Related Projection: If the Core PCE Price Index m/m data comes in higher than expected, it suggests rising inflation and increasing price pressures, which can reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts. This may weigh on US30, as higher interest rates increase borrowing costs and tighten market liquidity.
Indicator interpretation- Prices of US30 are hovering above the upper band of the BB and RSI showing reading above 50 which is supporting our bullish view.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: If the Core PCE Price Index m/m data comes in lower than expected, it suggests softer inflation and easing price pressures, which can increase expectations for Fed rate cuts. This may support US30, as lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs and improve market liquidity.
Technical Confirmations: If US30 starts to move above the middle band of the BB Indicator and RSI starts showing positive figures, then US30 will also move towards upper levels.
Facts & figures: Market expectations, risk tolerance, and investor confidence are just a few factors that can have a substantial impact on the US30 index. Positive sentiment, driven by favorable news, optimistic outlooks, and a general belief in market growth, can drive the index higher. Conversely, negative sentiment, driven by concerns, uncertainty, or fear, can lead to a decline.
Daily Pivot: 42945 (CMP is 43111, and the prices are trading above the pivot level while writing the report)
08 - Disclaimer
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