Research Report
01 Key News Insights
Date: 29 September, Monday 2025
MARKET HEADLINES
SUMMARY: China’s factory activity likely shrank for a sixth straight month in September, with economists forecasting the official PMI at 49.6, up slightly from August’s 49.4 but still below the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Policymakers introduced consumer loan subsidies in mid-August, but factory output and retail sales growth in the same month slowed to their weakest pace in a year. Despite this, exports have held up and China’s stock market has rallied, reducing urgency for large-scale stimulus.
EXPERT OPINION: “Authorities still have a wide range of monetary policy tools, but for now they’re holding back from aggressive measures, unlike the U.S. Federal Reserve,” said Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People’s Bank of China.
MAJOR EVENTS: The official PMI data, due Tuesday, will signal whether Beijing needs to accelerate stimulus efforts to support its $19 trillion economy amid persistent global trade tensions and a fragile post-pandemic recovery.
02 - Major Data and Event
03 - DOLLAR INDEX
DXY:
C&C’s previous research – reported a primary uptrend for DXY, after making a high of 114.78 (52-week high). Later, following a 52-week low of 99.10. DXY has made a range-bound / consolidation structure, which resembles a rectangle pattern. and trying to test its support made a high of 98.13 and a low of 97.77 on and close at 97.77 and now hovering around 97.54. The upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
04 - VIX
VIX:
VIX is trading at 17.86 while writing the report, it traded lower after making a high of 18.78 in the previous trading session and previous low 17.89 finally closed at 17.94. The upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the Volatility Index (VIX).
05 - FOREX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Asian currencies edged higher on Monday while the U.S. dollar weakened, with the Dollar Index slipping 0.2% as investors remained cautious ahead of a potential U.S. government shutdown and key central bank meetings in Australia and India.
NEWS IMPACT: Dollar weakness reflects investor caution over U.S. fiscal risks and expectations that a shutdown could disrupt markets and delay key economic data, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. The uncertainty has lent near-term support to Asian currencies.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. lawmakers face a deadline to pass a funding bill by Tuesday night to avoid a partial government shutdown. President Trump is set to meet top lawmakers at the White House in an attempt to broker a deal.
EXPERT OPINION: “A shutdown would have immediate consequences for financial markets and government operations, particularly in delaying critical economic data releases,” analysts said, noting that Asia FX is benefiting from potential capital outflows from U.S. assets.
EUR USD
Technical Summary: The primary trend for EURUSD is Sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing Bullish moments in its prices. A range bound consolidation pattern can be identified on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart and it is trading above the middle band of BB indicator while taking support from the daily pivot level 1.1689 It is also trying to chase its next resistance level at 1.1740. Therefore, we are identifying Buy-on-dips opportunities for intraday trading.
Descriptive Analysis: EUR/USD is attempting to move downside on the daily time frame and remains above its key pivot level (1.1689). The pair is currently trading at resistance levels around 1.1600, making it vulnerable to potential downward momentum. As long as it stays below the middle Bollinger Band, the bearish movement remains more likely. From a fundamental perspective. The Upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the EUR/USD.
Data related Projection “If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in lower than expected, signaling a weaker labor market and slowing job creation, the U.S. dollar could weaken, putting upward pressure on EUR/USD.”
Indicator Interpretation: Currently, EUR/USD prices are moving towards the upper Bollinger Band (BB) level on the H4 chart, and the BB indicator is expanding, signaling increased volatility. Additionally, the CCI indicator is moving towards the positive territory, indicating a potential upward move in the pair.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points “If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in higher than expected, signaling a stronger labor market and robust job creation, the U.S. dollar could strengthen, putting downward pressure on EUR/USD.”
Technical Confirmation: If EUR/USD continues to trade above the middle band of the BB Indicator, and the CCI starts moving towards positive territory, then the above-mentioned triggers will confirm buying pressure in the currency pair.
Facts & Figures: EUR/USD and USD/JPY are often negatively correlated due to the differing risk dynamics associated with the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. While the Australian dollar is typically viewed as a risk-sensitive currency, benefiting from positive market sentiment, the Japanese yen is often considered a safe-haven asset, strengthening during times of uncertainty.
Daily Pivot: 1.1689 (CMP is 1.1718 which is trading above the pivot levels while writing this report).
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after R1 level breakout. | Bearish Setup: Short position can be taken on S1 breakdown |
USD CHF
Technical Summary: The primary trend for USDCHF is Sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing a bearish moment in its prices. We can identify a clear rectangle pattern forming in USDCHF (H4); today it is trading above middle band of the BB indicator and also taking resistance from upper band of BB indicator. So, we are identifying Sell-on-rise opportunities for intraday.
Descriptive Analysis: USDCHF is trying to move upward in the daily time frame, towards its support level at 0.7953 and it is trading below pivot levels (0.7987). This indicates that bearish movement is stronger. If we look at the fundamental side of it. The Upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the USD/CHF.
Data related Projection “If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in lower than expected, it suggests weaker labor market conditions and slowing job creation, which could weaken the U.S. dollar and lead to a bearish move in USD/CHF.”
Indicator Interpretation: Currently, USD/CHF prices are moving downward and trading below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands (BB). The pair is attempting to move towards the middle band support, while the CCI indicator is also showing a sideways to negative reading. Therefore, we can expect an upward move in USD/CHF prices today.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points: “If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in higher than expected, it suggests stronger labor market conditions and robust job creation, which could strengthen the U.S. dollar and lead to a bullish move in USD/CHF.”
Technical Confirmation: If USD/CHF continues to trade below the Middle band of the BB Indicator, and the CCI starts moving towards negative territory, then the above-mentioned triggers will confirm selling pressure in the currency pair.
Facts & figures: The USDCHF currency pair has always had a near-perfect negative correlation with the EURUSD pair. This means that the USDCHF will tend to rise when the EUR/USD falls, and vice versa.
Daily Pivot: 0.7987 (CMP is 0.7965 which is trading below pivot while writing this report.)
Bullish Setup: Long position can be taken above R1 | Bearish Setup: Short position can be taken below S1. |
05 - COMEX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Gold prices hit fresh record highs in Asian trading on Monday, with spot gold reaching $3,812/oz and December futures peaking at $3,839.05/oz. Investor demand was driven by concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown this week, coupled with expectations of lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: The rally extended bullion’s strong momentum after inflation data last week came in line with expectations, keeping markets optimistic about future Fed rate cuts. Haven demand increased due to political uncertainty surrounding U.S. federal funding, as Congress struggled to pass a new spending bill.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Bipartisan talks over a funding bill continued, with Republicans favoring a stop-gap measure until November and Democrats pushing to reverse healthcare and Medicaid cuts. Congressional leaders were scheduled to meet President Trump on Monday for mediation.
OPINIONS: Analysts noted, “Gold’s record highs are being fueled by a combination of safe-haven buying due to U.S. political risks and expectations of Fed easing.” They added that any progress on averting a shutdown or confirmation of future rate cuts could further lift bullion prices.
GOLD
Technical Summary: The primary trend for XAUUSD is uptrend, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing Bullish moments in its prices. We can identify an Ascending Channel / Flag Formation Pattern forming in XAU/USD on the 4-hour chart (H4), and it is trading above the upper band of BB indicator while taking resistance from the daily pivot level 3759, It is also trying to chase its next resistance level at 3833. Therefore, we are identifying Buy on dips opportunities for intraday trading.
Descriptive Analysis: On the 4-hour (H4) chart, Gold is trading below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands (BB) indicator, with the bands sloping upward, indicating bullish momentum. However, the RSI is currently above 50, indicating momentum.
Data Related Projection: The upcoming Unemployment claims data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on XAU/USD. “If the Non-Farm Employment Change comes in lower than expected, it indicates weaker labor market conditions and slowing momentum, which could weaken the U.S. dollar and put upward pressure on XAU/USD.”
Indicator Interpretation: The price is currently trading below the BB middle band. If it faces resistance here, we may see a corrective rally toward its lower band.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: “If the Non-Farm Employment Change comes in higher than expected, it indicates stronger labor market conditions and accelerating momentum, which could strengthen the U.S. dollar and put downward pressure on XAU/USD.”
Technical Confirmations: If price took resistance at middle band of BB and hold below the levels, we can see gold price may give a bearish rally and can also breaks the lower band.
Facts & figures: Gold is often viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty and market volatility.
Daily Pivot: 3759 (CMP is 3812 & prices are trading above the pivot level while writing the report)
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after the R1 breach with TP below R2 and SL below S1. | Bearish Setup: Sell entry can be taken after the breach S1 levels. TP could be taken around S2 and SL above the Pivot point. |
06 - CRUDE OIL
Technical Summary: The primary trend for Crude oil is sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing bullish moments in its prices. We can identify range bound consolidation pattern in WTI (H4), and it is trading above middle band of BB indicator and taking resistance from the daily pivot level 65.13, it is also trying to chase its resistance level of 65.81 So, we are identifying Buy on dips opportunities for intraday.
Descriptive Analysis: In 4hr-TF Crude oil trading above middle band of the BB indicator, and the bands are also angle downward with the price, indicating some upside movement in the price. Although the RSI at 50 indicating neutral zone.
Data Related Projection: “If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in lower than expected, it suggests weaker labor market conditions and slowing momentum, which could weaken the U.S. dollar and put upward pressure on WTI/USD.”
Indicator Interpretation: If prices find support at the lower band of the Bollinger Bands indicator, we could see a retracement toward the middle band.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: –
Trigger Points: “If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in higher than expected, it suggests stronger labor market conditions and robust momentum, which could strengthen the U.S. dollar and put downward pressure on WTI/USD.”
Technical Confirmations: Currently, the prices of WTIUSD trading below the Middle band of the BB indicator. If price breaks the middle band, we are expecting price may give a bullish rally.
Facts & Figures: Countries maintain strategic oil reserves to ensure energy security and stability during supply disruptions.
Daily Pivot: 65.13 (CMP is 64.71 & and prices are trading below the pivot levels while writing this report.)
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after the R1 level with TP below R2 and SL below the pivot level. | Bearish Setup: Sell Stop below the S1 or take a sell once the prices face rejection from the R1 level. |
07- GLOBAL INDICES OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: A dovish Bank of Japan board member, Asahi Noguchi, signaled a growing need for an interest rate hike, highlighting steady progress toward the BOJ’s 2% inflation target and rising corporate wage intentions. Market expectations for a rate increase in October have risen amid signs of a hawkish shift within the board.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Market participants are now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a rate hike at the BOJ’s October 29–30 meeting. The hawkish split among board members has pushed traders to adjust yen and Japanese bond positions.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Despite keeping rates steady at 0.5% in September, dissenting calls for a quarter-point hike and Noguchi’s comments have strengthened the narrative of near-term tightening. Investors are weighing inflation gains, wage growth.
EXPERT OPINION: “Upside risks to prices and economic activity are currently outweighing downside risks, suggesting the board is increasingly leaning toward policy normalization,” said one Tokyo-based strategist.
US 30
Technical Summary: The US30 index continues to maintain its bullish structure, but recent candles indicate signs of exhaustion near the upper Bollinger Band. While the index remains in an uptrend, price is now showing consolidation above 46,400 marks.
Descriptive Analysis- US30 is currently showing bullish momentum on the H4 chart, trading above the middle Bollinger Band and hovering above the key pivot level of 46181. The price is encountering resistance near 46,500, and, suggesting bullish strength. RSI is currently hovering above the 50 marks. Considering fundamental aspects. The Upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the US30.
Data-Related Projection: “If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in lower than expected, it indicates weaker labor market conditions and could increase expectations for Fed rate cuts. This may support US30, as lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs and improve market liquidity.”
Indicator interpretation- Prices of US30 are hovering above the upper band of the BB and RSI showing reading above 50 which is supporting our bullish view.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: “If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in higher than expected, it indicates stronger labor market conditions and could reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts. This may weigh on US30, as higher interest rates increase borrowing costs and reduce market liquidity.”
Technical Confirmations: If US30 starts to move above the middle band of the BB Indicator and RSI starts showing positive figures, then US30 will also move towards upper levels.
Facts & figures: Market expectations, risk tolerance, and investor confidence are just a few factors that can have a substantial impact on the US30 index. Positive sentiment, driven by favorable news, optimistic outlooks, and a general belief in market growth, can drive the index higher. Conversely, negative sentiment, driven by concerns, uncertainty, or fear, can lead to a decline.
Daily Pivot: 46181 (CMP is 46406 and the prices are trading above the pivot level while writing the report)
Bullish Setup: Buying can be done for short movements. If prices break the R1 then it triggers a bullish shot up in prices which we can catch for the TP of R2 and SL below S2. | Bearish Setup: Trend is friend. Winning probability of bearish position is high as per the technical setup. Although it’s time to take aggressive sell position from the CMP or from R1. |
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