Research Report
01 Key News Insights
Date: 07th January, Tuesday 2025
MARKET HEADLINES
SUMMARY: Australia’s November CPI rose less than expected at 3.4% yoy (vs 3.7% est), slowing from 3.8%, but core trimmed mean held at 3.2% above 2-3% target; Trump plans oil execs meet on Venezuela revival; U.S. December payrolls eyed at 155k gain, unemployment 4.3%, but Jefferies warns seasonal quirks overstate strength.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Sticky Australian core inflation raises February RBA hike odds to 33%, pressuring AUD steady $0.6734, 3-yr futures -5 ticks; Venezuela talks could lift sanctions, adding 1.1M bpd supply glut risks; U.S. jobs print flattered by quirks tempers Fed easing bets.
EXPERT OPINION: “3.2% trimmed mean magic number—above warrants February hike,” says Oxford Economics’ Harry Murphy Cruise. Jefferies: “Gaudy headlines overstate labor demand difference—consequence of quirks, distortions.”
MAJOR EVENTS: RBA February meet eyes hike on sticky core; Trump oil execs Thu on Venezuela production; U.S. December NFP Fri for Fed cues; Goldman Sachs conference Wed with Energy Sec.
02 - Major Data and Event
03 - DOLLAR INDEX
DXY: C&C’s previous research – reported a primary uptrend for DXY, after making a high of 109.87 (52-week high). Later, following a 52-week low of 95.80. DXY has made a double bottom pattern and taken a retest from its support and broke out in daily TF and trying to test its resistance made a high of 98.26 and a low of 97.79 on Tuesday and now hovering around 98.19. Investors look ahead to ISM Non-Manufacturing DATA which will release Today is going to impact the DXY significantly.
04 - VIX
VIX: VIX is trading at 17.41 while writing the report, it traded Lower after making a high of 17.73 in the previous trading session and previous low 17.32 finally closed at 17.39. ISM Non-Manufacturing DATA which will release Today is going to impact the VIX significantly.
05 - FOREX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Asian FX in tight range Tuesday pre-U.S. labor data, AUD/USD +0.3% to 15-month high on sticky Nov CPI reinforcing RBA hawkishness; dollar dips 0.1%, yen catches bids on BOJ hikes, CNY steady at 2.5-yr strong, SGD +0.1%, KRW/TWD flat, INR >90 amid U.S. trade uncertainty.
NEWS IMPACT: Sticky Australian core inflation (3.2%>2-3% target) raises February RBA hike odds to 33%, bolstering AUD; U.S. payrolls loom for Fed path, Venezuela supply deal risks glut, China-Japan feud escalates export curbs, pressuring regional risk appetite.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Nov AU CPI +3.4% yoy <3.7% est, but trimmed mean 3.2% sticky; Trump: Venezuela agrees 30-50M bbl U.S. supply post-Maduro; China restricts military-potential exports to Japan; DXY -0.1%, AUD bonds futures -5 ticks to 95.78.
EXPERT OPINION: “3.2% trimmed mean magic number—above warrants February hike,” says Oxford Economics’ Harry Murphy Cruise. ANZ: RBA steady February, may discuss raises; Trump’s tariffs, Venezuela deal add trade uncertainty for INR.
EUR USD
Technical Summary: EUR/USD remains under short-term bearish pressure, trading below the mid-Bollinger band (~1.1710) and failing to reclaim prior breakdown levels. The broader structure shows a corrective decline within a medium-term consolidation range rather than a full trend reversal.
Descriptive Analysis: After peaking near 1.1820, price has formed lower highs and lower lows, signaling distribution. Recent candles show weak bullish follow-through, suggesting sellers remain in control. Volatility has compressed, indicating a potential expansion post key U.S. data releases.
Data related Projection. Upcoming U.S. labor and ISM services data will be critical. Strong U.S. data could push EUR/USD toward 1.1680–1.1650. Weak data may trigger short-covering toward the 1.1735–1.1760 supply zone, but upside likely capped.
Indicator Interpretation: Bollinger Bands are sloping downward, confirming bearish momentum. Price is hugging the lower band, reflecting sustained selling pressure. RSI is hovering near 35–40, indicating weak momentum but not yet deeply oversold, leaving room for further downside.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points: A sustained 4H close above 1.1735 (mid-Bollinger and short-term VWAP zone) would invalidate the immediate bearish bias. Failure below 1.1680 would confirm continuation toward deeper liquidity pools.
Technical Confirmation: Bullish confirmation requires higher lows and RSI reclaiming above 45 with expanding Bollinger bandwidth. Bearish continuation is confirmed if price remains below 1.1710 with RSI holding under 40 and bands widening downward.
Facts & Figures: Recent high: ~1.1820
Current price: ~1.1690
Key resistance: 1.1735 / 1.1765
Key support: 1.1680 / 1.1650
Daily Pivot: Price is trading below the daily pivot, keeping intraday bias negative. Acceptance above the pivot would shift the tone to neutral, while repeated rejection reinforces sell-on-rally behavior during the European and U.S. sessions.
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after R1 level breakout. | Bearish Setup: Short position can be taken on S1 breakdown |
USD CHF
Technical Summary: USD/CHF is attempting a base after a prolonged downtrend, trading near the mid-Bollinger band (~0.7950). Momentum has shifted from bearish to neutral, but price still lacks a decisive bullish breakout confirmation above recent supply.
Descriptive Analysis: Price formed a rounded recovery from the 0.7850 lows, printing higher lows into early January. Recent candles show hesitation near 0.7960–0.7980, suggesting profit-taking and supply absorption rather than aggressive trend continuation.
Data related Projection: U.S. ISM Services, ADP, and job-related data will dictate direction. Strong U.S. data favors a break toward 0.8000–0.8040. Weak data could push USD/CHF back toward 0.7920–0.7890 support zones.
Indicator Interpretation: Bollinger Bands are flattening, signaling trend exhaustion and transition into consolidation. RSI has climbed above 60, reflecting improving bullish momentum, but is not yet in overbought territory, leaving scope for either continuation or pullback.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
Trigger Points: A sustained 4H close above 0.7985 would confirm bullish continuation and invalidate consolidation risk. Failure below 0.7920 would signal a bull trap and potential return toward the prior demand base.
Technical Confirmation: Bullish confirmation requires price acceptance above the mid-band with RSI holding above 60. Bearish confirmation appears if price closes below the 20-period mean with RSI slipping back under 50.
Facts & figures: Recent low: ~0.7850
Current price: ~0.7950
Resistance: 0.7985 / 0.8040
Support: 0.7920 / 0.7890
Daily Pivot: Price is hovering near the daily pivot, indicating indecision. Acceptance above the pivot supports buy-on-dips, while rejection keeps USD/CHF vulnerable to range rotation ahead of high-impact U.S. data.
Bullish Setup: Long position can be taken above R1 | Bearish Setup: Short position can be taken below S1. |
05 - COMEX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Gold paused two-day gains, dipping to $4,480/oz Wednesday on US data focus, but edged +0.1% to $4,498.45 in early Asian Thursday amid Venezuela turmoil, Greenland threats, China-Japan tensions; pre-Dec jobs for Fed outlook pricing two 2026 cuts.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Geopolitical flare-ups (Maduro capture, Trump warnings, export curbs) spur safe-haven flows, offsetting labor softness boosting easing bets; sustains 60%+ 2025 rally, but sticky inflation tempers three-cut expectations to two.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Gold – from Maduro ouster, Trump U.S. Venezuela control/threats; China military-use export limits on Japan; Kashkari flags unemployment rise hiking cut odds; markets eye two 2026 reductions.
OPINIONS: “Ongoing tensions support safe-haven—LatAm escalation worries, Eastern Europe/Middle East fragile,” says Exness’ Van Ha Trinh; Kashkari: “Rising unemployment increases reduction likelihood amid policy caution.”
GOLD
Technical Summary: The primary trend in Gold remains neutral to mildly bullish, but short-term momentum has weakened after rejection near the upper resistance zone around 4515. Price is consolidating above the mid-range support. A sustained move above 4515 may resume upside, while a breakdown below 4420 could trigger deeper corrective pressure.
Descriptive Analysis: On the H4 chart, Gold shows a recovery from the late-December sell-off but is now facing supply near the upper Bollinger Band. Recent candles indicate slowing momentum and minor profit booking. Price is currently hovering near the middle band, reflecting short-term indecision ahead of U.S. macro data.
Data Related Projection: If upcoming U.S. ISM Services PMI, ADP Employment, and job-related data come in stronger than expected, Gold may face selling pressure due to USD strength. Conversely, weaker U.S. data could revive safe-haven demand and push Gold back toward recent highs.
Indicator Interpretation: Gold is trading near the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting consolidation rather than trend continuation. RSI remains above 50, indicating bullish bias is still intact, but momentum has cooled, warning of a possible pullback if buyers fail to regain control.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: If U.S. economic data prints weaker than forecast, Gold could regain bullish momentum and break above 4515. A sustained move below 4420 would invalidate the bullish structure and expose lower support levels.
Technical Confirmations: Bullish confirmation requires a H4 close above the upper Bollinger Band with RSI holding above 60. Bearish confirmation appears if price slips below the middle band and RSI falls under the 50 level.
Facts & figures: Market sentiment, U.S. dollar strength, bond yields, and risk appetite continue to dominate Gold price action. Rising uncertainty and softer macro data generally favor Gold, while strong growth data and higher yields tend to pressure prices.
Daily Pivot: Pivot: ~4450 (Current market price is near 4454; price is hovering marginally above the pivot at the time of writing, indicating a neutral-to-slightly bullish intraday bias.)
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after the R1 breach with TP below R2 and SL below S1. | Bearish Setup: Sell entry can be taken after the breach S1 levels. TP could be taken around S2 and SL above the Pivot point. |
06 - CRUDE OIL
Technical Summary: WTI Crude remains in a short-term corrective downtrend after failing to sustain above the 58.50–59.00 supply zone. Price is now trading below the middle Bollinger Band, signaling weakening momentum. Overall bias stays cautious-bearish unless price reclaims key moving average resistance.
Descriptive Analysis: The H4 chart shows repeated rejection near the upper Bollinger Band, followed by a sharp pullback. Recent bearish candles indicate distribution rather than accumulation. Price is testing the lower volatility range, suggesting increased downside risk if buyers fail to defend current support.
Data Related Projection: API and EIA crude inventory data remain key drivers. A larger-than-expected inventory build would reinforce downside pressure, while a surprise draw could trigger a technical rebound. U.S. ISM Services and broader risk sentiment will also influence crude demand expectations.
Indicator Interpretation: Crude is trading below the 20-period moving average with Bollinger Bands starting to widen, hinting at volatility expansion. RSI has slipped below 40, confirming bearish momentum and limited buying strength in the short term.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: –
Trigger Points: A sustained move above 57.60–58.00 could neutralize bearish momentum and open scope for a recovery. A break and hold below 56.20 would confirm continuation toward deeper support levels.
Technical Confirmations: Bullish confirmation requires a H4 close above the middle Bollinger Band with RSI reclaiming 50. Bearish confirmation strengthens if price stays below 56.50 with RSI holding under 40.
Facts & Figures: Crude prices remain sensitive to U.S. inventory trends, global demand outlook, OPEC supply discipline, and macro risk sentiment. Slowing economic signals typically weigh on oil, while inventory draws and geopolitical risk offer temporary support.
Daily Pivot: Pivot: ~56.80
(Current price is trading slightly below the pivot, indicating a short-term bearish intraday bias.)
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after the R1 level with TP below R2 and SL below the pivot level. | Bearish Setup: Sell Stop below the S1 or take a sell once the prices face rejection from the R1 level. |
07- GLOBAL INDICES OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Major U.S./European indexes hit records Tuesday, Dow +0.99% to 49,462.08, S&P +0.62% to 6,944.82, Nasdaq +0.65% to 23,547.17 on AI chip optimism; oil fell WTI -2.04% to $57.13/bbl, Brent -1.72% to $60.70 amid Venezuela reallocations; dollar +0.17% to 98.56 pre-jobs data; gold slight down to $4,491.77/oz after surge.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Venezuela reallocations risk supply glut, pressuring oil despite Maduro ouster; Fed cut bets (two 2026 priced) boost equities via growth, small caps; Greenland threats add geopolitics, but markets ignore for January effect, lifting copper/nickel on supply concerns.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Trump eyes military Greenland takeover, Venezuela 30-50M bbl U.S. reallocation; Exxon -3.4% post-Mon boost; MSCI world +0.69% record, STOXX +0.58% high, Germany/Spain records; copper all-time high, nickel +9% 18-month peak.
EXPERT OPINION: “Geopolitics caused roadblock—Greenland force thoughts; highs on January effect, weak labor aids cuts,” says Spartan’s Peter Cardillo. Miran: “Aggressive cuts needed to keep economy forward.” “Reasonable to ignore Venezuela geopolitics except oil firms spiking—its GDP negligible to global,” says Wealthspire’s Oliver Pursche; focus U.S. data for rates, noting no major impact.
US 30
Technical Summary: US30 remains in a strong bullish continuation phase, trading firmly above the 20-period moving average and pressing toward fresh highs near 49,600–49,800. Momentum remains elevated, though short-term exhaustion risks are emerging after the sharp impulsive rally.
Descriptive Analysis- Price has broken out decisively from the prior consolidation zone near 48,800, supported by strong bullish candles and expanding volatility. Bollinger Bands are widening upward, confirming trend strength. However, the latest candles show smaller bodies, hinting at potential pause or consolidation.
Data-Related Projection: With CFTC positioning showing reduced equity shorts and today’s U.S. macro focus shifting toward services activity and labor indicators, US30 remains sensitive to risk sentiment. Softer ISM or employment surprises could trigger profit-booking after the recent rally.
Indicator interpretation- RSI is hovering near overbought territory above 70, signaling strong bullish momentum but also increasing pullback probability. Price remains well above the mid-Bollinger Band, confirming trend control by buyers, though momentum divergence should be monitored closely.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: Sustained acceptance above 49,600 could open upside toward 49,900–50,000. A rejection below 49,300 followed by a break under 48,900 would signal a deeper corrective phase toward trend support.
Technical Confirmations: Bullish continuation requires higher lows above 49,000 with RSI holding above 60. Bearish confirmation emerges only if price closes below the 20-period MA with RSI slipping back under 55.
Facts & figures: US30 continues to benefit from easing financial conditions, reduced volatility, and expectations of stable growth. However, stretched valuations and event-driven macro risks raise the probability of short-term corrective pullbacks within the broader uptrend.
Daily Pivot: Pivot: ~49,530
(Price is currently holding above the pivot, maintaining a bullish intraday bias.)
Bullish Setup: Buying can be done for short movements. If prices break the R1 then it triggers a bullish shot up in prices which we can catch for the TP of R2 and SL below S2. | Bearish Setup: Trend is friend. Winning probability of bearish position is high as per the technical setup. Although it’s time to take aggressive sell position from the CMP or from R1. |
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