Research Report
01 Key News Insights
Date: 16th February, Monday 2026
MARKET HEADLINES
SUMMARY: Japan’s Q4 GDP grew annualized 0.2% (missed 1.6% est), quarterly 0.1% (vs 0.4%), testing Takaichi’s post-election government amid weak demand, high costs; may spur fiscal stimulus despite debt risks.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Consumption +0.1% (cooled from 0.4%), capex +0.2% (missed 0.8%), net external demand zero; revised Q3 contraction -2.6%; stocks/bonds subdued; Takaichi eyes early supplementary budget.
EXPERT OPINION: “Takaichi’s reflation via looser fiscal looks prescient; sluggish activity increases chances of suspending food tax, early H1 budget,” Capital Economics’ Thieliant says.
MAJOR EVENTS: Takaichi post-election stimulus push; BOJ Feb rate decision; spring wage negotiations March-April; Trump tariff impact assessment; Q1 GDP forecasts 1.04% annualized.
02 - Major Data and Event
03 - DOLLAR INDEX
DXY: C&C’s previous research – reported a primary downtrend for DXY, after making a high of 108.00 (52-week high). Later, following a 52-week low of 95.55. DXY has made a sideways pattern and taken a retest from its resistance and breakdown in daily TF and trying to test its support made a high of 97.15 and a low of 96.80 on and close at 96.88 and now hovering around 96.97. Friday’s Core PCE data at 19:00 is expected to significantly impact on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
04 - VIX
VIX: C&C’s previous research – reported a primary downtrend for VIX, after making a high of 42.50 (52-week high). Later, following a 52-week low of 12.50. VIX has made a sideways pattern and taken a retest from its resistance and breakdown in daily TF and trying to test its support made a high of 20.09 and a low of 18.74 on and close at 19.74 and now hovering around 19.98. Friday’s Core PCE data at 19:00 is expected to significantly impact on the U.S. Volatility Index (VIX).
05 - FOREX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Asian FX muted in holiday-thinned trade Monday as dollar steadied post-mixed CPI; yen +0.2% weakened on soft Q4 GDP showing meager 0.2% growth, missing estimates, amid Takaichi fiscal stimulus push.
NEWS IMPACT: Soft Japan GDP signals fiscal expansion needs, pressuring yen/BOJ hikes; dollar weekly losses amid Fed uncertainty support regional FX, but thin volumes limit gains; AUD near highs on RBA hawkishness.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Japan Q4 GDP +0.1% quarterly (missed 0.4%), annualized +0.2% (missed 1.6%); capex/consumption/export weak; Takaichi eyes more spending post-supermajority; AUD +0.2%; INR +0.2% to 90.7; SGD slight rise.
EXPERT OPINION: “If easing US wage/inflation pressures persist, Treasuries regain hedge value, restoring USD safe-haven appeal—keeps additional downside shallow,” OCBC analysts say on potential positive data limiting weakness.
EUR USD
Technical Summary: EURUSD on the 1H and 4H charts is consolidating after rejection from the 1.1950–1.2000 zone. Price trades near the 20-period moving average, signaling short-term balance within a corrective structure.
Descriptive Analysis: Following the decline from 1.1950, the pair formed lower highs and is ranging between 1.1840–1.1890. Bollinger Bands on 1H are contracting, reflecting volatility compression and potential breakout conditions.
Data related Projection: With heavy US data ahead, stronger dollar catalysts could push EURUSD toward 1.1800. Softer US prints may trigger recovery toward 1.1950 resistance.
Indicator Interpretation: RSI on 1H hovers near 47, indicating neutral momentum. On 4H, RSI remains below 50, maintaining a cautious-to-bearish broader bias unless momentum strengthens.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
Bullish continuation: Bullish continuation: Sustained break above 1.1900
Bearish continuation: Close below 1.1840
Technical Confirmation: Bullish extension requires holding above the 20-MA with RSI breaking above 55. Failure to defend 1.1840 and rejection from the mid-band would confirm renewed downside pressure.
Facts & figures: EURUSD remains sensitive to US yields, dollar positioning, and upcoming inflation-related releases driving volatility expectations this week.
Daily Pivot: 1.1875, Above the pivot favors recovery attempts; sustained trading below it increases probability of downside continuation toward 1.1800.
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after R1 level breakout. | Bearish Setup: Short position can be taken on S1 breakdown |
USD JPY
Technical Summary: USDJPY on the 1H and 4H charts is stabilizing after a broader downtrend. Price is hovering near the 20-period moving average on 1H, signaling short-term consolidation within a corrective structure.
Descriptive Analysis: Following the drop toward 152.00, the pair formed a base and is ranging between 152.80–153.50. Bollinger Bands on 1H are narrowing, reflecting volatility compression and potential breakout conditions.
Data related Projection: With key US data ahead, stronger dollar catalysts could push USDJPY toward 154.00. Softer releases may renew downside pressure toward the 152.00 support zone.
Indicator Interpretation: RSI on 1H has recovered toward 55, showing improving momentum. On 4H, RSI remains below 50, keeping the broader bias cautious unless sustained strength develops.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
Trigger Points: Bullish continuation: Sustained break above 153.80
Bearish continuation: Close below 152.80
Technical Confirmation: A bullish extension requires holding above the 20-MA with RSI pushing above 60. Failure to maintain above 152.80 would confirm renewed selling pressure.
Facts & figures: USDJPY remains highly sensitive to US Treasury yields, Bank of Japan expectations, and overall risk sentiment during high-impact macro sessions.
Daily Pivot: ~ 153.20, Above the pivot favors recovery toward 154.00; sustained trading below it increases probability of downside continuation toward 152.00.
Bullish Setup: Long position can be taken above R1 | Bearish Setup: Short position can be taken below S1. |
05 - COMEX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Gold fell 1.1% to $4,988.04/oz on thin trading (US/China holidays), profit-taking after Friday’s 2.5% gain; silver -3.2% to $74.50, platinum -0.4% to $2,054.78, palladium -0.2% to $1,682.44.
NEWS IMPACT: Thin volumes, profit-taking pressure gold amid low catalysts; January CPI +0.2% <0.3% est supports cuts, but Fed’s Goolsbee upbeat on rates; Iran risks linger, sustaining haven appeal.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: US/China markets closed holidays; CPI rose 0.2% MoM; Goolsbee: Rates could fall but services inflation high; Trump considers weeks-long Iran operation; March cut odds steady.
OPINIONS: “Gold gave back Friday’s post-CPI gains on thinner conditions, lack of catalysts, profit-taking; dollar downtrend needed for $6,000 year-end push,” KCM’s Tim Waterer says.
GOLD
Technical Summary: XAUUSD on 4H maintains its recovery stance above the 4950 level. The price is currently testing the VWMA, acting as a fractal pivot between a corrective bounce and continuation.
Descriptive Analysis: Following the aggressive crash to 4950, price action shows stabilization. The 1H fractal indicates a “buy-the-dip” response at the lower Bollinger Band, as bulls attempt to reclaim psychological 5000.
Data Related Projection: Post-CPI volatility lingers as markets digest inflation implications. With no major tier-1 data today, price action will likely be driven by technical positioning and dollar-index (DXY) strength.
Indicator Interpretation: 4H RSI has exited oversold territory, currently rising toward 45. The 1H chart shows price holding the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting a shift from bearish momentum to neutral-bullish consolidation.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: Bullish Defense: 1H close above 4985.
Bearish Breakout: 1H close below 4950.
Technical Confirmations: A 1H candle close above 4985 confirms a shift toward the 5015 target. Failure to hold 4950 invalidates the recovery, confirming the 4H bearish trend toward 4900 remains dominant.
Facts & figures: Gold recovered 0.8% from the 4950 liquidity sweep. Despite the recent crash, long-term sentiment remains supported by central bank demand, though short-term technicals are still recovering from last week’s liquidation.
Daily Pivot: 4968, Reclaiming this zone suggests a move to 5000; staying below keeps the 4930 support in play. The fractal bias is neutral-bullish while the price remains above the 4950 level.
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after the R1 breach with TP below R2 and SL below S1. | Bearish Setup: Sell entry can be taken after the breach S1 levels. TP could be taken around S2 and SL above the Pivot point. |
06 - CRUDE OIL
Technical Summary: XTIUSD is stabilizing near $62.75 after a sharp rejection from $65.70. The 4H fractal shows price resting on a rising trendline support that has been active since early February.
Descriptive Analysis: Price action is currently “compressed” following last week’s oversupply-driven sell-off. The current 49360-style pressure is mirrored here at $62.50, where bulls are attempting to form a structural double-bottom.
Data Related Projection: Traders are focused on tomorrow’s US-Iran talks in Geneva. While structural oversupply (IEA forecast 3.7m bpd surplus) weighs on prices, a breakdown in diplomacy could spark a rapid geopolitical rally.
Indicator Interpretation: Daily RSI is neutral at 52, but 4H momentum shows a bullish divergence. Price remains below the 50-day EMA ($62.92), acting as a “ceiling” that must be broken to turn bullish.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: –
Trigger Points: Bullish Reclaim: 1H close above $63.60.
Bearish Extension: 1H close below $62.00.
Technical Confirmations: Reclaiming $63.60 (Daily Pivot) targets $65.00 and $66.40. Conversely, a sustained break of the $62.00 psychological floor invalidates the recovery fractal and opens the door for a slide toward $60.00.
Facts & Figures: Crude remains down 11.17% over the last year. Despite the recent 3% weekly drop, the broader structure is corrective, as prices hold above the 200-day EMA located near $55.05.
Daily Pivot: $62.76 – $63.60, This is the current “Make or Break” zone. A bounce here keeps the target of $66 alive for February. A failure below $62.00 likely confirms the “Oversupply” narrative, shifting the strategy to selling rallies.
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after the R1 level with TP below R2 and SL below the pivot level. | Bearish Setup: Sell Stop below the S1 or take a sell once the prices face rejection from the R1 level. |
07- GLOBAL INDICES OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: AI-driven stock volatility could influence Fed decisions by disrupting jobs/inflation, while potential layoffs from AI adoption risk higher housing delinquencies, exacerbating cracks in markets like Florida/Texas.
NEWS IMPACT: AI riptide pressures tech/software stocks, prompting rotation to small-caps/Dow; Fed may pause cuts on job risks, while housing faces delinquency surge from AI unemployment, tempering recovery.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: S&P/Nasdaq lower on AI concerns; Dow record high; retail sales flat; jobs report delayed; software stocks (MSFT/CRM/ORCL) down 5-14%; Eli Lilly +43% revenue.
EXPERT OPINION: “AI tide no longer lifts all boats; earnings serviceable but capex without revision no growth narrative,” SPI’s Stephen Innes says; Moody’s Taiano: “AI layoffs something to watch for housing delinquencies.”
US 30
Technical Summary: US30 is testing a critical inflection point at 49360, where previous consolidation meets the current bearish rotation. The 4H fractal confirms a shift below the middle Bollinger Band.
Descriptive Analysis- US30 is testing a critical inflection point at 49360, where previous consolidation meets the current bearish rotation. The 4H fractal confirms a shift below the middle Bollinger Band.
Data-Related Projection: Market sentiment remains cautious Today as investors digest recent CPI data. Without major tier-1 releases today, the index will likely follow technical momentum and treasury yield fluctuations.
Indicator interpretation- 1H RSI is near 40, leaning bearish, while the 4H RSI is testing its lower trendline. Moving averages present a “sell-on-strength” bias as the index remains below key intraday pivots.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: Bullish Defense: 1H close above 49625.
Bearish Breakout: 1H close below 49200.
Technical Confirmations: A 1H close above 49625 suggests a corrective “buy the dip” toward 50000. Conversely, a sustained break of 49200 invalidates the bullish fractal and opens the floor to 48790.
Facts & figures: Despite the recent 600-point drop, the medium-term trend remains positive. However, weakness in heavyweights like Apple and Microsoft is weighing on index momentum, preventing a clean reclaim of 50000.
Daily Pivot: 49330 – 49360, This is the current “Make or Break” zone. A bounce here preserves the uptrend; a failure likely confirms a short-term top, favoring a selling strategy toward the 48000s.
Bullish Setup: Buying can be done for short movements. If prices break the R1 then it triggers a bullish shot up in prices which we can catch for the TP of R2 and SL below S2. | Bearish Setup: Trend is friend. Winning probability of bearish position is high as per the technical setup. Although it’s time to take aggressive sell position from the CMP or from R1. |
08 - Disclaimer
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