Research Report
01 Key News Insights
Date: 17th March, Tuesday 2026
MARKET HEADLINES
SUMMARY: Japan’s Q4 GDP grew annualized 0.2% (missed 1.6% est), quarterly 0.1% (vs 0.4%), testing Takaichi’s post-election government amid weak demand, high costs; may spur fiscal stimulus despite debt risks.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Consumption +0.1% (cooled from 0.4%), capex +0.2% (missed 0.8%), net external demand zero; revised Q3 contraction -2.6%; stocks/bonds subdued; Takaichi eyes early supplementary budget.
EXPERT OPINION: “Takaichi’s reflation via looser fiscal looks prescient; sluggish activity increases chances of suspending food tax, early H1 budget,” Capital Economics’ Thieliant says.
MAJOR EVENTS: Takaichi post-election stimulus push; BOJ Feb rate decision; spring wage negotiations March-April; Trump tariff impact assessment; Q1 GDP forecasts 1.04% annualized.
02 - Major Data and Event
03 - DOLLAR INDEX
DXY: C&C’s previous research – The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding above the key 100 level, indicating continued bullish strength driven by safe-haven demand and firm monetary policy expectations, with upside potential toward 101, while a break below 99.80 may signal weakness.
04 - VIX
VIX: C&C’s previous research – CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains elevated around the mid-20s, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty and risk-off sentiment, where sustaining above 25 keeps volatility high and pressure on equities, while a move below 24 could suggest easing fear in the market.
05 - FOREX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: The safe-haven U.S. dollar rose on Tuesday as the rapidly worsening war in the Middle East weighed on investor sentiment, while the Australian dollar wobbled in choppy trading after the central bank chief sent the market hawkish signals following a close vote to raise interest rates.
NEWS IMPACT: There has been no let-up in attacks by both sides as the war entered its third week, with the critical Strait of Hormuz largely closed off. U.S. allies rebuffed President Donald Trump’s request for help to reopen the waterway, stoking energy price gains and fears of inflation.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: The euro EURUSD weakened 0.23% to $1.1479, inching back towards the more than seven-month low touched on Monday. Sterling GBPUSD last fetched $1.3279, down 0.3% on the day.The dollar index DXY, which measures the U.S. currency against six other units, was 0.19% higher at 100.05, taking its gains to about 2.5% since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran broke out at the end of February.
EXPERT OPINION: “Positioning had been short, rate cut expectations have been pared back, and the Iran conflict has lifted risk premia in energy, so the dollar has been the clean hedge,” said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets.
EUR USD
Technical Summary: EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.1495, rebounding from a strong demand zone around 1.1390–1.1400 after a sharp downside move. The pair is attempting a corrective recovery, but still trades below key resistance levels, indicating that the broader bias remains cautious unless higher levels are reclaimed.
Descriptive Analysis: After rejecting the 1.19 supply zone, EUR/USD entered a strong bearish phase, breaking multiple support levels and slipping below both short-term and long-term moving averages. However, the decline found support near the 1.1390 demand zone, where buyers stepped in again. Currently, price is showing a relief bounce, moving back toward the 1.1488–1.1585 resistance region. This zone now acts as a critical barrier, as it previously served as support and aligns with dynamic resistance levels. The structure suggests a pullback within a broader bearish-to-neutral phase.
Data related Projection: If EUR/USD sustains above 1.1488, the recovery could extend toward 1.1585, followed by 1.1685 as the next upside targets. However, failure to hold above 1.1390–1.1400 would resume the bearish trend, potentially pushing price toward 1.1300 or lower in the medium term.
Indicator Interpretation: Price recently took support at the long-term moving average and demand zone confluence, which is a strong technical base. However, the short-term moving average is still trending downward, indicating that the current upside is corrective unless stronger bullish confirmation appears.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
Trigger Points:
Bullish continuation strengthens if EUR/USD breaks above 1.1488, targeting 1.1585.
Bearish pressure resumes if price falls below 1.1390, exposing deeper downside levels.
Technical Confirmation:
A strong daily close above 1.1488 would confirm recovery momentum and open the path toward 1.1585–1.1685.
A daily close below 1.1390 would confirm breakdown and continuation of the bearish trend.
Facts & Figures:
EUR/USD remains driven by ECB vs Federal Reserve policy divergence, inflation data, and macroeconomic releases from both the Eurozone and the U.S., which continue to influence directional bias.
Daily Pivot: 1.1488 (CMP 1.1495, trading slightly above the pivot, indicating early signs of bullish recovery but requiring confirmation above resistance.)
USD JPY
Technical Summary: USD/JPY is trading near 159.33, approaching a major resistance zone around 159.36, which has historically acted as a strong supply area. The pair has been forming higher highs and higher lows, confirming a broader bullish structure. A decisive breakout above this level could open the path toward 163.30, while failure to sustain above it may trigger a short-term corrective pullback.
Descriptive Analysis: The pair shows a strong bullish recovery from the mid-2025 lows, with price consistently holding above both the short-term and long-term moving averages. Recently, USD/JPY accelerated higher and is now testing the key 159.36 resistance zone, where previous selling pressure emerged. The current structure reflects bullish momentum but also near-term exhaustion signals, as price approaches a historically significant resistance band.
Data related Projection: If price breaks and sustains above 159.36, USD/JPY may extend its rally toward 163.30, which represents the next major resistance zone.Conversely, failure to break above 159.36 could lead to a corrective move toward 156.37, followed by 153.95 support. A deeper retracement could test the broader support near 153.14 if selling pressure intensifies.
Indicator Interpretation: Price is trading well above both the VWMA and the long-term moving average, confirming a strong bullish trend. Momentum remains positive, though the proximity to a major resistance zone may lead to temporary consolidation or pullback before continuation.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
Trigger Points: Bullish continuation triggers if USD/JPY sustains above 159.36, targeting 163.30.
Bearish correction strengthens if price falls below 156.37, exposing 153.95.
Technical Confirmation: A strong bullish daily candle closing above 158.10 would confirm continuation toward the next resistance near 160.60.Repeated rejection near 158.10 combined with a daily close below 155.50 would validate a deeper corrective phase.
Facts & figures: USD/JPY remains highly sensitive to U.S. Treasury yield movements, Federal Reserve policy outlook, and Bank of Japan monetary policy stance. Widening yield differentials typically support USD/JPY upside, while narrowing spreads often trigger corrective pullbacks.
Daily Pivot: 156.27(CMP 159.33, trading well above the pivot, indicating a strong bullish intraday bias while testing major resistance.)
05 - COMEX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Gold volatility is increasing due to Middle East geopolitical tensions and oil price spikes, which influence inflation expectations and interest-rate outlook.
NEWS IMPACT: Higher oil prices and a strong US dollar are temporarily capping gold’s upside, despite safe-haven demand.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Spot gold is trading around $5,050- 5010 per ounce, though the metal is still heading for a weekly decline due to rising energy prices and shifting rate-cut expectations. Global stock markets are falling as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East trigger risk-off sentiment.
OPINIONS: Market strategists maintain that gold’s broader outlook remains constructive while macro uncertainty and geopolitical risks persist. Analysts highlight that sustained upside momentum may require softer inflation data or clearer dovish signals from the Federal Reserve to trigger stronger investment demand.
GOLD
Technical Summary: Gold recently corrected sharply, with futures dipping near $4,994 before stabilizing. Currently hovering around the $5,000–$5,050 zone, indicating a key demand area.
Descriptive Analysis: After a strong impulsive rally from the 5,000 regions, price created consecutive BOS formations and established higher highs and higher lows. A recent expansion pushed price toward 5,250+ where supply pressure emerged. Currently, price is retracing toward a marked FVG zone around 5,140–5,160.
Data Related Projection: PPI and FOMC are mostly awaited by tomorrow.
Stronger-than-expected print: renewed USD strength may pull gold back to lower demand zones before resuming its trend.
Indicator Interpretation: Price remains positioned above the 50 EMA while the 200 EMA trends upward, confirming alignment with the prevailing bullish structure. Momentum has moderated following the recent high but does not yet indicate bearish dominance, suggesting consolidation within an uptrend.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: A sustained breakdown below 5,000 would weaken the current higher-low structure and expose gold to a broader retracement toward the 4980–4950 liquidity band.
Bullish continuation or Bearish continuation:
Bearish continuation remains favored while price sustains above the 4980 structural bases.
Technical Confirmations: A strong bullish rejection from the 5,040-zone followed by acceptance above 5,000 would confirm continuation toward new lows, whereas a decisive close below 5,000 with expanding bearish momentum would confirm corrective extension.
Facts & figures: Gold rebounded nearly 6% from the 5000 liquidities sweep and is currently consolidating just below its recent 5,250 peak. The metal has maintained strength above the 5,000 psychological level despite short-term pullbacks, reflecting sustained dip-buying interest while broader macro sentiment remains sensitive to U.S. dollar fluctuations.
Daily Pivot: The daily pivot is positioned near 4987, and as long as price holds above this level, intraday bias remains tilted to the upside, while sustained trading below it may increase corrective pressure.
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after the R1 breach with TP below R2 and SL below S1. | Bearish Setup: Sell entry can be taken after the breach S1 levels. TP could be taken around S2 and SL above the Pivot point. |
06 - CRUDE OIL
Technical Summary: Oil remains highly volatile near $95–$100 amid Middle East conflict and supply disruption concerns. Closure/disruption of the Strait of Hormuz (≈20% global supply route) is the key bullish driver.
Descriptive Analysis: WTI recently pulled back toward $97 after a sharp rally, indicating profit booking at higher levels.
Indicator Interpretation: Price is trading above the 50 EMA, reflecting short-term bullish momentum, while the 200 EMA remains upward sloping, supporting broader recovery structure. Momentum remains constructive despite minor consolidation, suggesting buyers are defending higher lows.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: –
Trigger Points: A sustained move above $95 could trigger further upside toward $100, with momentum buyers likely to enter the market.
Bullish continuation or Bearish continuation:
Bullish continuation remains favored while price sustains below 97 structural resistance.
Technical Confirmations: On the downside, $95 acts as immediate support, while a deeper correction could extend toward $90 if profit-taking increases
Facts & Figures: WTI has recovered nearly 9% from the 70 demand base and is consolidating near 97.00 after sweeping short-term liquidity. Despite recent volatility, prices remain supported above the 65.00 psychological level as supply-side expectations continue to influence short-term positioning.
Daily Pivot: $ The daily pivot is positioned near 66.40, and sustained trading above this level keeps the intraday bias constructive, while trading below it may invite renewed corrective pressure.
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after the R1 level with TP below R2 and SL below the pivot level. | Bearish Setup: Sell Stop below the S1 or take a sell once the prices face rejection from the R1 level. |
07- GLOBAL INDICES OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: U.S. equities traded in a narrow range as investors evaluated the interest-rate outlook from the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 stayed close to record levels, while the Nasdaq Composite saw mild consolidation after recent tech-led gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained steady with support from industrial stocks.
NEWS IMPACT: Higher Treasury yields continue to pressure growth and AI-related stocks, limiting upside momentum in tech-heavy indices. However, rotation into defensive and value sectors is helping stabilize the broader market. Softer inflation expectations could quickly revive bullish sentiment.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. equity futures traded slightly mixed following cautious trading across Asian markets. Semiconductor and large-cap tech stocks saw mild profit-taking while healthcare and energy sectors attracted selective buying. The U.S. dollar strengthened modestly as bond yields edged higher.
EXPERT OPINION: Market strategists say equities remain in an overall bullish structure but near-term moves will depend on incoming macro data. Analysts believe institutional investors are rotating capital across sectors rather than reducing exposure. Clearer policy signals from the Federal Reserve could drive the next breakout in U.S. indices.
US 30
Technical Summary: US30 on the 1H timeframe is in a clear bearish structure, forming lower highs and lower lows. Price is currently trading near short-term support after rejecting from nearby supply, indicating continued downside pressure.
Descriptive Analysis- After rejection from the 47,200–47,600 supply zone, price continued its downward move and broke multiple structure levels (BOS). The recent pullback toward 47,000 FVG zone failed to sustain, showing weak buying interest. Price is now hovering near 46,650–46,700, close to a minor demand zone, but overall momentum still favors sellers.
Data-Related Projection:
Indicator interpretation- Momentum remains bearish with price trading below key intraday resistance zones. No strong reversal confirmation yet, indicating sellers still control the market.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: If price holds above 46,500 demand zone, a short-term pullback toward 46,900–47,000 is possible before continuation.
Bullish continuation or Bearish continuation:
Bearish continuation below 47,000
Technical Confirmations: Break below 46,500 → continuation toward deeper demand
Break above 47,000 → short-term bullish correction
Facts & figures: The Nasdaq index has declined roughly 3–4% from the recent 25,100 peak and recently swept liquidity near 24,350 before stabilizing. The ongoing consolidation reflects cautious market positioning as traders react to macroeconomic expectations and interest rate outlook.
Daily Pivot: The daily pivot is positioned near 46832, and sustained trading below this level could keep downside pressure intact, while trading above could trigger recovery.
Bullish Setup: Buying can be done for short movements. If prices break the R1 then it triggers a bullish shot up in prices which we can catch for the TP of R2 and SL below S2. | Bearish Setup: Trend is friend. Winning probability of bearish position is high as per the technical setup. Although it’s time to take aggressive sell position from the CMP or from R1. |
08 - Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER |
Carlos and Company respect and values the Right to Policy of each and every individual. We are esteemed by the relationship and by becoming our clients; you have a promise from our side that we shall remain loyal to all our clients and non-clients whose information resides with us. This Privacy Policy of Carlos and Company applies to the current clients as well as former clients. Below are the word-by-word credentials of our Privacy Policy:
- Your information, whether public or private, will not be sold, rented, exchanged, transferred or given to any company or individual for any reason without your consent
- The only use we will be bringing to your information will be for providing the services to you for which you have subscribed to us.
- Your information given to us represents your identity with us. If any changes are brought in any of the fields of which you have provided us the information, you shall bring it to our notice by either calling us or dropping a mail to us.
- In addition to the service provided to you, your information (mobile number, E-mail ID etc.) can be brought in use for sending you newsletters, surveys, contest information, or information about any new services of the company, which will be for your benefit, and while subscribing for our services, you agree that Carlos and Company has the right to do so
- By subscribing to our services, you consent to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
- Carlos and Company does not guarantee nor is responsible in any which way, for the trade execution of our recommendations; this is the sole responsibility of the client.
- Due to the market’s volatile nature, the trader may/ may not get appropriate opportunity to execute the trades at the mentioned prices and Carlos and Company holds no liability for any profit/ loss incurred whatsoever in this case..
- It is the responsibility of the client to view the report timely from our Premium member section on our website: www.carlosandcompany.com and the same will also be mailed to this registered email id.
- Carlos and Company does not hold any liability or responsibility of delay in mail delivery of reports, as this depends on our mail service provider’s network infrastructure
