Research Report
Date: 30 May, Friday 2025
01 Key News Insights
SUMMARY: Most Asian currencies traded within a narrow range on Friday as the U.S. dollar staged a mild recovery, following a federal appeals court decision to reinstate former President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: The dollar index rose by 0.1% to 0.2% in Asian trade, regaining some ground after falling overnight. The appeals court’s decision gave a short-term boost to the greenback, though concerns over the ongoing legal battle introduced fresh uncertainty into markets.
EXPERT OPINION: “The reinstatement of tariffs may provide temporary support for the dollar, but prolonged legal uncertainty and stalled trade talks with China could weigh on market sentiment,” said a currency strategist at a Tokyo-based investment bank.
MAJOR EVENTS: Sentiment in regional markets was further pressured by comments from U.S. Treasury officials, who stated that trade negotiations with China had stalled in recent weeks. The market’s attention has now turned to the release of key U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures.
02 - Major Data and Event
03 - DOLLAR INDEX
DXY: C&C’s previous research – reported a primary uptrend for DXY, after making a high of 114.78 (52-week high). Later, following a 52-week low of 99.10. DXY has made a double bottom pattern and taken a retest from its support and breakout in daily TF and trying to test its resistance made a high of 100.04 and a low of 98.78 on Thursday and close at 98.90 and now hovering around 98.95. The upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
04 - VIX
VIX: VIX is trading at 20.32 while writing the report, it traded higher after making a high of 20.45 in the previous trading session and previous low 19.28 finally closed at 20.28. The upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the U.S. Dollar Index (VIX).
05 - FOREX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: The U.S. dollar rose on Thursday, extending its recent recovery as traders assessed the implications of a court ruling that blocked President Donald Trump’s import tariffs, potentially easing trade-related pressure on the U.S. economy.
NEWS IMPACT: The Dollar Index gained 0.1% to 99.850 by 06:50 ET (10:50 GMT), briefly climbing above 100 for the first time in a week. The greenback’s rise reflected expectations that the court decision would reduce the risk of trade disruptions.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Trump lacked the authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to unilaterally impose the contested tariffs, asserting that such decisions ultimately rest with Congress.
EXPERT OPINION: “This ruling blocks around 6.7 percentage points of effective tariff hikes and increases short-term uncertainty,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said. “While it’s a legal setback for the administration, it may not significantly change the final outcome for key U.S. trading partners.
GBP USD
Technical Summary: The primary trend for GBPUSD is Sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing Bullish moments in its prices. A range bound consolidation pattern breakout can be identified on the GBP/USD 4-hour chart and it is trading below the middle band of BB indicator while taking support from the daily pivot level 1.3471, It is also trying to chase its next resistance level at 1.3527. Therefore, we are identifying Buy-on-dips opportunities for intraday trading.
Descriptive Analysis: GBP/USD is attempting to move upside on the daily time frame and remains above its key pivot level (1.3480). The pair is currently trading above support levels around 1.3450, making it vulnerable to potential upward momentum. As long as it stays above the middle Bollinger Band, the bullish movement remains more likely. From a fundamental perspective. The Upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the GBP/USD.
Data related Projection If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in lower than expected, signaling a slowdown in job creation and a softening outlook for the U.S. economy, the U.S. dollar could weaken, putting upward pressure on GBP/USD.
Indicator Interpretation: Currently, GBP/USD prices are moving towards the Upper Bollinger Band (BB) level on the H4 chart, and the BB indicator is expanding, signaling increased volatility. Additionally, the CCI indicator is moving towards the positive territory, indicating a potential upward move in the pair.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in higher than expected, signaling stronger job creation and a more robust outlook for the U.S. economy, the U.S. dollar could strengthen, putting downward pressure on GBP/USD.
Technical Confirmation: If GBP/USD continues to trade above the middle band of the BB Indicator, and the CCI starts moving towards positive territory, then the above-mentioned triggers will confirm buying pressure in the currency pair.
Facts & Figures: GBP/USD and USD/JPY are often negatively correlated due to the differing risk dynamics associated with the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. While the Australian dollar is typically viewed as a risk-sensitive currency, benefiting from positive market sentiment, the Japanese yen is often considered a safe-haven asset, strengthening during times of uncertainty.
Daily Pivot: 1.3471 (CMP is 1.3473 which is trading above the pivot levels while writing this report).
USD CHF
Technical Summary: The primary trend for USDCHF is Sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing a sideways moment in its prices. We can identify a clear rectangle pattern forming in USDCHF (H4); today it is trading below middle band of the BB indicator and also taking resistance from upper band of BB indicator. So, we are identifying sell-on-rise opportunities for intraday.
Descriptive Analysis: USDCHF is trying to move downward in the daily time frame, towards its support level at 0.8183 and it is trading below pivot levels (0.8265). This indicates that bearish movement is stronger. If we look at the fundamental side of it. The Upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the USD/CHF.
Data related Projection If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in lower than expected, it suggests slowing job growth and a weakening outlook for the U.S. economy, which could weigh on the dollar and lead to a bearish move in USD/CHF.
Indicator Interpretation: Currently, USD/CHF prices are moving downward and trading below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands (BB). The pair is attempting to move towards the middle band support, while the CCI indicator is also showing a sideways to negative reading. Therefore, we can expect a downward move in USD/CHF prices today.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points: If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in higher than expected, it suggests strong job growth and a more optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy, which could support the dollar and lead to a bullish move in USD/CHF.
Technical Confirmation: If USD/CHF continues to trade below the Middle band of the BB Indicator, and the CCI starts moving towards negative territory, then the above-mentioned triggers will confirm selling pressure in the currency pair.
Facts & figures: The USDCHF currency pair has always had a near-perfect negative correlation with the EURUSD pair. This means that the USDCHF will tend to rise when the EUR/USD falls, and vice versa.
Daily Pivot: 0.8265 (CMP is 0.8234 which is trading below pivot while writing this report.)
05 - COMEX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Friday, pressured by a resilient U.S. dollar and strong economic data, even as uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs failed to significantly boost safe-haven demand.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Gold briefly gained after an appeals court reinstated Trump’s tariff agenda, but this was insufficient to offset earlier losses. A stronger dollar, buoyed by signs of U.S. economic resilience and expectations of a firm PCE inflation reading, remained a key headwind for bullion.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Spot gold fell 0.7% to $3,293.44/oz, while August gold futures dropped 0.8% to $3,316.67/oz by 00:44 ET (04:44 GMT). The metal is down over 1% this week, marking a retreat from record highs touched earlier in May.
OPINIONS: “Dollar strength and profit-taking are dominating the gold narrative for now,” said a senior analyst at a Hong Kong-based metals brokerage. “The legal back-and-forth on Trump’s tariffs did little to spur demand, and unless we see a clear risk-off trigger, gold may remain under pressure in the near term.”
GOLD
Technical Summary: The primary trend for XAUUSD is uptrend, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing Bearish moments in its prices. We can identify a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern forming in XAU/USD on the 4-hour chart (H4), and it is trading below the middle band of BB indicator while taking resistance from the daily pivot level 3298, It is also trying to chase its next support level at 3364. Therefore, we are identifying Sell on rise opportunities for intraday trading.
Descriptive Analysis: On the 4-hour (H4) chart, Gold is trading below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (BB) indicator, with the bands sloping downward, indicating bullish momentum. However, the RSI is currently at 46.00, indicating neutral zone.
Data Related Projection: The upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the XAU/USD. If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in higher than expected, it suggests stronger job growth and a more positive outlook for the U.S. economy, which could strengthen the dollar and put downward pressure on XAU/USD.
Indicator Interpretation: The price is currently trading below the BB middle band. If it faces resistance here, we may see a corrective rally toward its lower band.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in lower than expected, it suggests weaker job growth and a softening outlook for the U.S. economy, which could weaken the dollar and provide upward pressure on XAU/USD.
Technical Confirmations: If price took resistance at middle band of BB and hold below the levels, we can see gold price may give a bearish rally and can also breaks the lower band.
Facts & figures: Gold is often viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty and market volatility.
Daily Pivot: 3298 (CMP is 3290 & prices are trading below the pivot level while writing the report)
06 - CRUDE OIL
SUMMARY: Oil prices were headed for a second straight weekly decline on Friday, pressured by expectations of a July OPEC+ production hike and renewed trade-related uncertainty after a U.S. appeals court reinstated President Donald Trump’s broad tariffs.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: A U.S. federal appeals court temporarily restored sweeping tariffs imposed by Trump, reversing a trade court’s earlier decision. The legal twist reignited investor concerns, contributing to a 1% decline in oil prices Thursday.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Brent crude slipped 21 cents, or 0.33%, to $63.94 a barrel by 06:26 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 22 cents, or 0.36%, to $60.72. Both benchmarks have lost 1.3% so far this week, with the Brent July contract expiring Friday.
OPINIONS: “The stage is set for another bumper production increase,” said Robert Rennie, Head of Commodity and Carbon Research at Westpac. JPMorgan analysts noted the widening surplus may require price adjustments to trigger a supply response. “Uncertainty will persist as tariff battles continue through the courts,” analysts added, pointing to ongoing demand-side risks.
CRUDE OIL
Technical Summary: The primary trend for Crude oil is sideways, and the intraday trend on H4, H1, and 15M is showing bullish moments in its prices. We can identify a Range Bound Consolidation pattern in WTI (H4), and it is trading above middle band of BB indicator and taking resistance from the daily pivot level 61.13, it is also trying to chase its resistance level of 61.13 So, we are identifying buy on dips opportunities for intraday.
Descriptive Analysis: In 4hr-TF Crude oil trading below middle band of the BB indicator, and the bands are also angle downward with the price, indicating some downside movement in the price. Although the RSI at 38.00 indicating neutral zone.
Data Related Projection: The upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on WTI/USD. If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in higher than expected, it suggests strengthening labor market conditions and improving momentum in the U.S. economy, which could strengthen the dollar and put downward pressure on WTI/USD.
Indicator Interpretation: If prices find support at the lower band of the Bollinger Bands indicator, we could see a retracement toward the middle band.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: –
Trigger Points: If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in lower than expected, it suggests weakening labor market conditions and a slowing U.S. economy, which could weigh on the dollar and put upward pressure on WTI/USD.
Technical Confirmations: Currently, the prices of WTIUSD trading below the Middle band of the BB indicator. If price breaks the middle band, we are expecting price may give a bullish rally.
Facts & Figures: Countries maintain strategic oil reserves to ensure energy security and stability during supply disruptions.
Daily Pivot: 61.13 (CMP is 60.51 & and prices are trading below the pivot levels while writing this report.)
07- GLOBAL INDICES OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has called on the U.K. government to reduce the economic downsides of Brexit by strengthening ties with the European Union, particularly in the financial services sector.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Speaking at a financial services event in Dublin, Bailey emphasized the importance of reducing non-tariff barriers and improving market access to the EU. His comments follow Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s unveiling of a “reset” agreement.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: The speech marks a continuation of policy alignment between the BoE and the U.K. Treasury. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has echoed similar calls for regulatory alignment in mature industries like chemicals.
EXPERT OPINION: “There is merit in seeking to increase the openness of our financial markets by reducing non-tariff barriers,” Bailey stated. “Brexit has weighed on productivity and growth, and we should do all we can to minimize its negative effects on trade.”
US 30
Technical Summary: The US30 index is currently trading in a sideways consolidation, hovering around the middle Bollinger Band, with no clear directional bias. Price action has lost some bullish momentum, evidenced by lower highs and a recent failure to sustain above the 42,600-resistance level.
Descriptive Analysis- US30 is currently showing neutral to slightly bearish momentum on the H4 chart, consolidating below the middle Bollinger Band and hovering around the key pivot level of 42,206. The price is encountering resistance near 42,460, and recent candles show rejection at higher levels, suggesting weakening bullish strength. RSI is currently hovering around the 50 mark. Considering fundamental aspects. The Upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change data, scheduled for release on Friday at 6:00 PM, is expected to have a significant impact on the US30.
Data-Related Projection: If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in higher than expected, it suggests a strengthening labor market, which can reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts or even raise the likelihood of future hikes. This may weigh on US30, as higher interest rates increase borrowing costs and can dampen market liquidity.
Indicator interpretation- Prices of US30 are hovering above the upper band of the BB and RSI showing reading above 50 which is supporting our bullish view.
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: If the Non-Farm Employment Change data comes in lower than expected, it suggests weakening labor market conditions, which can increase expectations for Fed rate cuts. This may support US30, as lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs and improve market liquidity.
Technical Confirmations: If US30 starts to move above the middle band of the BB Indicator and RSI starts showing positive figures, then US30 will also move towards upper levels.
Facts & figures: Market expectations, risk tolerance, and investor confidence are just a few factors that can have a substantial impact on the US30 index. Positive sentiment, driven by favorable news, optimistic outlooks, and a general belief in market growth, can drive the index higher. Conversely, negative sentiment, driven by concerns, uncertainty, or fear, can lead to a decline.
Daily Pivot: 42221 (CMP is 42160, and the prices are trading below the pivot level while writing the report)
08 - Disclaimer
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