Research Report
01 Key News Insights
Date: 27th January, Tuesday 2025
MARKET HEADLINES
SUMMARY: BoE expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% at Feb 5 meeting (54/56 Reuters poll economists), with small majority now eyeing March cut to 3.50% after stronger data; MPC split persists amid high G7 inflation, but recent business growth, retail sales, housing rebound signal less urgency for easing.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Dec MPC 5-4 cut vote; Nov retail sales/housing rebound, business growth strongest since Apr 2024; wage growth decelerating, unemployment creeping up; Dec CPI cooling expected, but core trimmed mean sticky above 2-3% band.
EXPERT OPINION: “MPC voters citing two-sided risks need larger evidence accumulation before next move—possible Q1 skip, wait-and-see,” says Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja. Investec’s Ellie Henderson: “Inflation dips Jan on VAT drop-out, weaker water bills; labor loosening, wage down weigh services—progress toward 2% but not quite.”
MAJOR EVENTS: BoE Feb 5 decision, quarterly forecasts release; spring wage negotiations March-April key for hikes; U.S. Dec payrolls Fri for global cues; Fed Jan 27-28 hold eyed amid probe fallout; China-Japan feud monitors curbs.
02 - Major Data and Event
03 - DOLLAR INDEX
DXY: C&C’s previous research – reported a primary uptrend for DXY, after making a high of 109.87 (52-week high). Later, following a 52-week low of 95.80. DXY has made a double bottom pattern and taken a retest from its support and broke out in daily TF and trying to test its resistance made a high of 97.33 and a low of 96.80 on Monday and now hovering around 97.14. CB Consumer Confidence DATA which will release today, is going to impact the DXY significantly.
04 - VIX
VIX: VIX is trading at 16.61 while writing the report, it traded Lower after making a high of 17.65 in the previous trading session and previous low 16.50 finally closed at 16.80. CB Consumer Confidence DATA which will release today, is going to impact the VIX significantly.
05 - FOREX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Asian currencies traded in a tight range Tuesday, with yen USD/JPY +0.2% to 154.50 near 18-month highs despite Takaichi intervention warning, KRW +0.1% on Trump 25% tariff hike threat over trade deal delay; dollar index flat, CNY slight rise near 2.5-yr strong, AUD/SGD flat, INR steady above 90, TWD +0.1%.
NEWS IMPACT: Takaichi’s intervention signal tempers yen downside from fiscal stimulus fears, but snap election risks looser policy; Trump tariff threat on SK autos/pharma/lumber pressures KRW amid delayed deal; Fed hold expected (Jan 27-28) amid mixed data, curbing dollar upside but sustaining caution in EM FX amid geopolitics (China-Japan, Venezuela).
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Yen from Monday surge on Takaichi volatility warning; Trump threatens 25% tariffs on SK imports over trade deal delay, no enactment timeline; China-Japan row persists with export curbs; U.S. data mixed, Fed officials signal pause on persistent inflation; KRW extends losses post-Bessent aid.
EXPERT OPINION: “Takaichi’s fiscal push heightens deficit worries, downward yen pressure amid election uncertainty, steeper JGB curve,” MUFG analysts note; Trump tariff threat adds uncertainty, but no direct cues on timing.
EUR USD
Technical Summary: EUR/USD remains in a broader bullish structure after a sharp recovery from the mid-January lows. However, price has now paused into consolidation near recent highs, suggesting momentum is cooling ahead of the US Consumer Confidence release.
Descriptive Analysis: The pair is holding above the 1.1820–1.1830 region after breaking higher from the 1.1600–1.1650 demand zone. Recent 4H candles show compressed ranges near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating balance and hesitation rather than immediate continuation. Price remains above rising short-term moving averages, keeping the bullish structure intact, but upside follow-through has slowed near 1.1880–1.1900 resistance.
Data related Projection. Today’s US CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) release will be the primary catalyst.
- Stronger-than-expected data → USD strength → EUR/USD pullback toward support
- Weaker data → USD softness → renewed upside attempt toward psychological resistance
Post-data direction will depend on how price reacts around 1.1820–1.1900.
Indicator Interpretation: RSI (4H): Elevated and near overbought, but stabilizing rather than diverging
Bollinger Bands: Price near the upper band, signaling stretched conditions
Moving Averages: Price remains above short- and medium-term averages, confirming bullish structure
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Trigger Points: Bullish: Acceptance above 1.1900 after data
Bearish: Breakdown below 1.1820
Technical Confirmation: Bullish case needs RSI holding above 60 with expanding bands.
Bearish case confirmed if RSI rolls over below 55 with price back inside bands.
Facts & Figures: Volatility expected around 20:30 IST
Trend remains bullish unless 1.1760 fails
Consolidation suggests positioning ahead of macro data rather than trend reversal
Daily Pivot: Price is currently hovering near the upper pivot region
Expect initial whipsaw around the data release before directional clarity
Sustained trade above the pivot favors continuation; rejection favors rotation lower
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after R1 level breakout. | Bearish Setup: Short position can be taken on S1 breakdown |
USD CHF
Technical Summary: USD/CHF has shifted into a clear short-term bearish structure after failing to sustain gains above the 0.8000 region. Recent price action shows downside continuation followed by base-building consolidation near lows, suggesting sellers remain in control but momentum is stabilizing.
Descriptive Analysis: The pair has broken decisively below the 0.7900–0.7920 support zone, accelerating toward the 0.7750 area, where price is currently consolidating. Candles near the lower Bollinger Band indicate exhaustion selling rather than fresh momentum, hinting at a pause or corrective phase. Price is trading below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, confirming bearish control, though downside momentum has slowed into a tight range.
Data related Projection: Today’s US CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) remains the key macro catalyst.
- Stronger-than-expected data → USD support → corrective bounce toward broken resistance
- Weaker data → further USD weakness → continuation toward lower demand zones
Volatility is expected around the release, especially given price compression near support.
Indicator Interpretation: RSI (4H): Recovering from oversold territory but still below neutral, signaling weak rebound strength
Bollinger Bands: Price hugging the lower band, showing prior downside expansion now transitioning into consolidation
Moving Averages: Bearish alignment with price capped below short- and medium-term averages
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
Trigger Points: Bullish: Acceptance back above 0.7810–0.7830
Bearish: Clean break down below 0.7720
Technical Confirmation: Bullish correction requires RSI reclaiming 50 with a close above the 20-MA
Bearish continuation confirmed if price expands lower with renewed band widening
Facts & figures: Trend bias remains bearish below 0.7900
Current structure suggests distribution after breakdown, not reversal
Volatility likely to expand post-data due to compressed ranges
Daily Pivot: Price is currently trading below the daily pivot
Initial reaction around the pivot may define intraday bias
Failure at pivot favors continuation toward lower supports
Bullish Setup: Long position can be taken above R1 | Bearish Setup: Short position can be taken below S1. |
05 - COMEX OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: Gold climbed near $5,050/oz Tuesday after hitting all-time high above $5,100, extending rally on safe-haven demand from renewed U.S.-South Korea trade tensions and ahead of Fed meeting; +17% YTD amid retreat from currencies/bonds.
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Trump’s tariff threats on SK autos/lumber/pharma (15% to 25% on others) revive trade war fears, boosting gold as haven amid dollar pressure; Fed hold expected, but Powell remarks on 2026 path could sway easing bets, supporting non-yielders if dovish.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Trump cites lack of progress on last year’s deal for tariff hikes; gold briefly $5,100+ record; Fed two-day meeting starts today, unchanged rates widely priced, focus on Powell for cuts outlook.
OPINIONS: “Strong haven demand persists amid trade/geopolitical tensions; Fed hold likely, but Powell’s remarks key for 2026 path—markets price two cuts if dovish,” analysts note, highlighting uncertainty driving safe-haven flows.
GOLD
Technical Summary: Gold remains in a strong bullish structure, with price holding near recent highs after an impulsive upside move. The current phase reflects healthy consolidation, suggesting continuation risk remains higher than reversal as long as key supports hold.
Descriptive Analysis: Price has advanced sharply from the 4,700–4,750 demand zone, pushing into the 5,100 region before entering a sideways pause. Candles are printing near the upper Bollinger Band, but without aggressive rejection, indicating controlled profit-taking rather than distribution. The 20-period moving average continues to slope higher and has acted as dynamic support during pullbacks, reinforcing trend strength.
Data Related Projection: With US CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) releasing today, Gold’s reaction will be closely tied to USD sentiment:
- Weaker confidence → USD softness → bullish continuation in Gold
- Stronger confidence → USD bid → short-term pullback toward trend support
Overall structure favors dips being bought unless data triggers a sharp USD reversal.
Indicator Interpretation: RSI (4H): Elevated but not diverging, showing strong momentum with room to cool
Bollinger Bands: Upper band expansion confirms trend strength; recent narrowing signals consolidation
Moving Averages: Price remains firmly above short- and medium-term averages, keeping bullish control intact
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: Bullish: Acceptance above 5,120 – 5,150
Bearish: Breakdown below 5,025
Technical Confirmations: Bullish continuation requires sustained closes above recent highs with RSI holding above 60
Bearish corrective phase confirmed if price loses the 20-MA and expands toward the mid-band
Facts & figures: Trend bias remains bullish above 5,000. Pullbacks so far have been shallow and corrective.
No major bearish reversal signals are present on the 4H timeframe
Daily Pivot: ~ Price is trading above the daily pivot, maintaining upside bias
Initial reactions near the pivot may offer dip-buying opportunities
Strong rejection from pivot would be the first warning of deeper correction
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after the R1 breach with TP below R2 and SL below S1. | Bearish Setup: Sell entry can be taken after the breach S1 levels. TP could be taken around S2 and SL above the Pivot point. |
06 - CRUDE OIL
Technical Summary: WTI is trading in a range-bound corrective phase within a broader recovery structure. Price has stalled near the mid-range after failing to sustain momentum above recent highs, suggesting indecision rather than trend continuation at this stage.
Descriptive Analysis: After rebounding strongly from the 56.00–56.50 demand zone, price advanced toward 61.50–62.00, where upside momentum faded. Recent candles show compression around the 20-period moving average, reflecting balanced order flow and a lack of conviction from both buyers and sellers.
Bollinger Bands are flattening, reinforcing the view that WTI is consolidating rather than trending.
Data Related Projection: Near-term direction will remain sensitive to:
- USD movement following US Consumer Confidence
- Broader risk sentiment
- Expectations around upcoming EIA inventory data
Absent a strong macro catalyst, price is likely to remain range-bound with rotational price action.
Indicator Interpretation: RSI (4H): Hovering in the mid-range, signaling neutral momentum
Bollinger Bands: Narrowing bands indicate reduced volatility and consolidation
Moving Averages: Price oscillating around the 20-MA confirms lack of trend dominance
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: –
Trigger Points: Bullish: Sustained acceptance above 61.80 – 62.00
Bearish: Breakdown below 59.60
Technical Confirmations: Bullish continuation requires expansion in range and RSI pushing above 60
Bearish move confirmed if price loses the lower Bollinger Band with follow-through volume
Facts & Figures: Market remains headline-sensitive (energy supply, geopolitics, inventories)
No clear trend on the 4H timeframe
Consolidation favors mean-reversion trades until a breakout occurs
Daily Pivot: Price is hovering near the daily pivot, reinforcing sideways bias
Expect whipsaw behavior around the pivot until a directional break
Strong reaction at pivot will guide intraday bias
Bullish Setup: Buy position can be taken after the R1 level with TP below R2 and SL below the pivot level. | Bearish Setup: Sell Stop below the S1 or take a sell once the prices face rejection from the R1 level. |
07- GLOBAL INDICES OUTLOOK
SUMMARY: U.S. stocks closed higher Monday, Dow +0.64% to 49,412.40 erasing prior losses, S&P +0.50% to 6,950.23, Nasdaq +0.43% to 23,601.36, buoyed by eased geopolitical tensions after Trump’s Greenland framework announcement averting tariffs on Europe; durable goods +5.3% Nov beat, Chicago Fed -0.04 (improved), Dallas Fed -1.2 Jan (better).
LATEST NEWS IMPACT: Greenland deal de-escalation lifts risk sentiment, supporting cyclical stocks amid rotation from tech; strong macro data tempers aggressive Fed cuts, firming yields/dollar slightly; tariff threat on Canada if China deal risks trade friction, potential shutdown over immigration funding adds policy uncertainty, pressuring broader markets.
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS: Trump: Greenland framework reached, no Feb 1 tariffs; Canada PM Carney “no intention” China deal; immigration shooting outrage, senators threaten DHS funding block; Nov durable goods +5.3% (transport +14.7%, ex-transport +0.5%); Chicago Fed -0.04 Nov (production +0.08); Dallas Fed -1.2 Jan, outlook +2.9; Apple/Meta/Microsoft earnings this week.
EXPERT OPINION: “Market cheered Greenland tariff aversion, focus on U.S. economy strengths—strong earnings, data signal no recession,” analysts note; “Trump uses threats to push agenda, rolls back on victory—latest episode reflects pattern,” per prior market views.
US 30
Technical Summary: US30 remains in a broader bullish structure, but price action is currently rotating within a range-bound consolidation. The index is holding above recent demand, suggesting buyers remain in control structurally, though momentum has slowed near the upper range.
Descriptive Analysis- After rebounding from the 48,500–48,700 demand zone, price recovered steadily and is now trading around the 49,300–49,400 region. Recent candles show overlapping bodies and reduced follow-through, indicating equilibrium between buyers and sellers rather than trend continuation. Price is oscillating around the 20-period moving average, while Bollinger Bands have begun to flatten — both consistent with consolidation rather than expansion.
Data-Related Projection: Near-term direction will be influenced by:
- US Consumer Confidence (Jan) outcomes
- Reaction in US bond yields
- USD strength and broader risk sentiment
Absent a strong upside data surprise, price may continue to rotate within the current range before a decisive break.
Indicator interpretation- RSI (4H): Holding in the upper-mid zone, showing bullish bias without overextension
Bollinger Bands: Flattening bands reflect volatility compression
Moving Averages: Price holding above short- and medium-term averages keeps the bullish structure intact
Alternative Scenario:
Trigger Points: Bullish: Acceptance above 49,650 – 49,700
Bearish: Breakdown below 49,000
Technical Confirmations: Bullish continuation requires expanding candles and RSI sustaining above 65
Bearish scenario confirmed if price loses the 20-MA with increasing downside momentum
Facts & figures: Index remains supported structurally despite momentum cooling. Consolidation suggests positioning ahead of fresh macro catalysts. Range conditions favor patience over aggressive trend entries
Daily Pivot: Price is trading close to the daily pivot, reinforcing sideways bias
Expect initial volatility around pivot levels
A strong pivot hold or rejection will define intraday direction
Bullish Setup: Buying can be done for short movements. If prices break the R1 then it triggers a bullish shot up in prices which we can catch for the TP of R2 and SL below S2. | Bearish Setup: Trend is friend. Winning probability of bearish position is high as per the technical setup. Although it’s time to take aggressive sell position from the CMP or from R1. |
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